Monday 21st November 2022

Another unsettled week, but could it be the last unsettled week for a while? Read on…

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

Today’s rain is currently over the Midlands/North England and is stuck there for a little while – we’ll see clear spells overnight and temperatures down to around 3’C – though some more cloud and perhaps a little light rain towards dawn, as the remnants sink back south/south-east.

Low pressure remains in charge for Tuesday, with the jetstream tracking a little to our south – the Scandinavian (ish) blocking high making it difficult for low pressure systems to clear.

Not really any rain left in the low pressure system over us, there will be some sun at times, more likely in the morning – and cloudy spells too, particularly lunchtime and early afternoon. Perhaps a little light rain. 8’C and breezy. Clear spells at first overnight, down to around 2’C, cloud thickening later in the night with rain arriving a little before dawn.

Wednesday sees a band of rain crossing, some heavy – say around 4 hours of rain, 5am to 9am – give or take. Sunny spells follow for the afternoon and a bit milder, 10’C. Quite windy too. Variable cloud overnight, a chance of a shower in the wind, 7’C or so.

Thursday starts with good spells of sunshine. Cloud will bubble up with some scattered heavy showers – most places catching a couple. Either late afternoon or early evening looks to see a band of very heavy rain crossing for an hour or two – some gusty winds possible, and an outside chance of hail/thunder mixed in. Around 11’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 3’C.

Friday sees a ridge of high pressure building, as an attempt to change the weather pattern starts. Long spells of sunshine, a bit of cloud, around 10’C. Clear spells at first overnight, though high cloud building and probably preventing a frost, down to around 3’C.

Saturday sees the next weather front approaching, though struggling a bit to get across. Likely bright to start the day, but cloud with slowly thicken with some patchy rain possible in the afternoon/evening. Around 11’C and windy. Persistent rain likely overnight, and mild, 12’C. Windy too.

Sunday is probably fine with sunny spells and variable cloud. Around 11’C and breezy. Probably a chilly night – maybe a frost.

Next week looks like another attempt to change the weather pattern with high pressure building in once more – will the attempt be successful or will another low pressure win out?

These autumnal patterns can take a bit of shifting…but the signs remain for December to be settled and drier than normal, as I’ve been saying for a long while – and these signals are increasingly strong.

How high pressure takes control (assuming it does) will be key as to whether December is mild and mostly dry, or cold and mostly dry – at least for the beginning of the transition.

That high pressure block to our north-east could well extend its influence further west – which would mean dry and cold, with chances of wintry showers.

Those wanting snow – well, you have some lottery tickets this year. Those wanting a White Christmas – even you have some lottery tickets. Normally I think the odds of a White Christmas (snow falling that day) this far out is around 3-5% – maybe it is 8-10% this year.

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