Monday 21st June 2021

A mixed week ahead, but a big improvement on the last few days (unless you prefer it cloudy and cool, of course.

Thanks to Mandy for the photograph – perhaps a bit ambitious in terms of sunshine though!

This evening and most of the night will see further showery rain – mostly light or moderate, and some dry spells at times, especially later in the night. Down to around 9’C in a northerly breeze.

Tuesday sees a ridge of high pressure building over north-west Britain, with our low pressure squeezing south.

It starts cloudy, perhaps still some patchy rain around but that will move south. During the afternoon there will be some sunny breaks developing – likely still a lot of cloud, but slowly improving in terms of sunshine. Still on the cool side, around 16’C in a northerly breeze. Clear skies overnight and quite chilly for the time of year, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday will be much more pleasant. Good spells of sunshine, some cloud developing at times and back to being warm – around 20’C. Clear spells overnight, though likely more cloud later, down to around 8’C.

Thursday has a bit of uncertainty on cloud amounts – we will be in a weather no man’s land – with neither high or low pressure really having any control. Likely sunny in the morning with more cloud from lunchtime onwards, or something broadly like that – with a 30% chance of a shower in the afternoon/evening. On the warm side, around 20’C – perhaps a tad more. Likely cloudy overnight, with some showery rain later, around 13’C.

Friday’s forecast isn’t the clearest as it looks like a low pressure trough will vaguely develop on Thursday night into Friday and push down, but barely registering as a feature. However, enough to give a chance of some heavy showers through Friday, with some sunshine – quite how much of both sunshine and showers is uncertain at this stage. Temperatures around 20’C, but could easily be a few either way. Mostly cloudy overnight, around 13’C.

Saturday’s forecast is also frustratingly difficult to call, and will depend on what happens with Friday’s vague feature. Either something along the lines of sunny spells, warm but with heavy showers – or rather cloudy, on the cool side with a couple of scattered showers.

Unfortunately the uncertainty means that I’m probably going to have to give up here.

Two broad and very different broad paths seem possible from Sunday and into the first part of next week.

The slightly more likely one is that high pressure takes some control, and there is increasing amounts of sunshine, it becomes very warm, but we have a chance of heavy, thundery showers.

The slightly less likely one is that the vague low pressure feature hangs around and develops more, meaning more heavy rain and showers, with temperatures below normal.

Not the best forecast I’ve ever written, but it is what it is. Hopefully things will be a bit clearer by Thursday when I do my next forecast…well…they will be.

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