Monday 21st February 2022

Time to calm down…somewhat. The overall picture still sees a fairly active Atlantic, though with low pressure systems generally being pushed further north – as high pressure tries to build in from the south-west.

Changeable, in short.

Thanks to Charlotte for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells at first. Cloud gradually thickening with a little patchy light rain in the latter part of the night. Down to around 4’C and breezy.

For Tuesday we remain in a westerly flow.

Mostly cloudy in the morning with the odd spot of light rain. An hour or two of more persistent light/moderate rain around lunchtime, which will be followed by sunny spells and a small chance of a shower. Windy and mild, 12’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 1’C with a touch of frost in places.

Wednesday sees a weather front trying to push down from the north-west, with a ridge of high pressure slowing it down. Sunny to start, there will be quite a lot of cloud from late morning onwards, one or two scattered showers, though still some bright spells – the main rain band remaining quite far to our north-west. Becoming windy, 11’C. That band of rain will sink south-east overnight, likely in the latter part of the night, though showery in nature.

Thursday may start with some showery rain to clear – a bit of uncertainty on how quick it clears, but it will do to leave sunny spells and scattered showers. A colder air mass, temperatures around 6’C. Any showers should be of rain, but there is a small chance of a wintry mix if you catch a heavier one. Still fairly windy too. Clear spells overnight, down to around 3’C – probably too windy for a frost.

Friday sees high pressure building from the south-west.

Sunny spells, fair weather cloud, a very small chance of a shower. Around 9’C. Clear skies probable overnight, down to around 0’C give or take a couple, there is a little uncertainty on the chance of some high cloud building later in the night.

Saturday sees high pressure in control with somewhat of a southerly breeze – though France is too chilly for spring-lovers to get too excited. That said, it will be dry, there should be sunshine at least at times – some uncertainty on cloud amounts. Around 10’C. That uncertainty on cloud amounts remains overnight, with a weak weather front also likely crossing from the west, so temperatures are a bit unknown.

Sunday remains mostly settled, though again some uncertainty on cloud amounts – a small chance of a little light rain in the morning depending on the overnight weak weather front, but mostly fine with hopefully at least some sunshine at times. Temperatures around 10’C, though I wouldn’t rule out an almost spring-like 12’C – half a chance of a vaguely pleasant day.

So…next week.

It’s a very close call, as low pressure will be close to our north, the Atlantic looks busy and the jetstream will still be fairly powerful, though further north.

But the slightly more likely outcome sees high pressure continuing to strengthen from the south, with milder air – perhaps even close to quite warm, say between 12’C and 16’C. Sunshine amounts uncertain at this stage – but plausibly it could be rather spring-like.

And I do hope so as I’ve been promising a warmer, sunnier and drier than normal March for a long time – my winter forecast was a disaster, at least for January & February, so would be nice to be back on form.

It’s still a close call, it could easily end up unsettled, or similar to this week and changeable, but there is hope of a taste of early spring.

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