Monday 20th May 2024

A mixed week ahead but staying on the warmer side.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Early cloud this morning will quickly break up into long spells of sunshine. Some cloud again bubbling up this afternoon, and a small chance of a heavy, perhaps thundery shower developing – say a 20% chance tops. Reaching around 21’C. Clear spells in the first part of the night, though one or two scattered showers still possible – thicker low cloud again likely to spread across later in the night. Down to around 10’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy – the slack low pressure that has been to our south for over a week will be starting to develop and shift north. As it does, there will be more cloud on Tuesday with showers developing, probably heavy and possibly thundery. Some uncertainty on the exact developments – you may miss them all and stay dry, you may get caught under slow-moving showers that keep regenerating, or you may just catch a few heavy showers. Around 18’C. Likely skies slowly clear overnight, down to around 12’C.

On Wednesday we have an unusual situation of low pressure developing over Germany and heading our way – which goes against our dominant westerly weather patterns.

Unsurprisingly all the models handle this differently – it’s a rare movement so there is less history for them to go on, and hence it creates uncertainty for Wednesday/Thursday, and this has a knock-on impact for the weekend’s forecast too.

Anyway, it does look more likely than the main rain will be to our north, perhaps well to our north, and we’ll stay fairly cloudy with some sunny spells, and plenty of heavy showers developing, perhaps thundery. Plausible it could just be persistent rain, but as I mentioned, I’m pretty confident the rain will be northern UK and we’ll be heavy showers. Around 20’C, or just under. Variable cloud overnight and down to around 11’C.

Confidence is much lower for Thursday. I think low pressure is still fairly close to our north-east, though high pressure will be trying to build from the west too. Broadly speaking, probably plenty of cloud, some sunshine and some showers, potentially heavy – and around 18’C to 20’C.

Synoptically a bit of a messy picture for Friday with high pressure trying to build, but also some weak low pressure systems close by. I guess broadly similar to Thursday, a fair amount of cloud likely, some sunshine and a chance of a shower. Probably less warm, say 16’C to 18’C.

Confidence still fairly low for the weekend, so don’t be surprised if this changes nearer the time – until the models have a better handle on Wednesday’s low pressure, the weekend will be subject to change.

However, for Saturday the most likely outcome is high pressure is loosely in control.

Assuming so, sunny spells, some cloud (perhaps more cloud than sun overall), a shower possible but more likely dry, and 20’C to 22’C the more likely range.

A weak weather front likely pushes in from the west on Sunday, adding to uncertainty – more likely I’d suggest sunshine/hazy sunshine for a good portion of the day, with increased chances of cloudier skies later, and perhaps some showers. Again around the 20’C to 22’C range but I stress confidence is fairly low.

Signs of our summer friend, the Azores High, trying to push in from Monday – so more warm sunshine with a chance of a heavy shower is the more likely outcome for Monday, and at least the first half of next week – perhaps becoming very warm as the week goes on, but keeping the chance of heavy, thundery showers too.

Seems pretty decent to me.

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