Monday 1st July 2024

Not too bad a week, at least to start, but gradually becoming more unsettled. It feels like a pivotal week for the rest of the summer.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograpgh.

The general picture sees the Azores high rather bloated and just about keeping us settled in the south of the UK, but this is competing against a re-invigorated jetstream.

Today starts sunny but it will soon cloud over from the west, and stay mostly cloudy as a weak weather front crosses. A little rain possible this afternoon, but just as likely to stay dry, and some limited sunny spells around still. Fairly warm, 21’C. Continuing mostly cloudy this evening and tonight, a little patchy rain/drizzle possible at times, and down to around 12’C. Some clear spells possible by dawn.

Tuesday may start sunny, it also may start cloudy – and either way will become/stay cloudy during the rest of the morning, again perhaps some light rain/drizzle. The cloud will thin and break a bit in the afternoon to bring some sunny spells, though plenty of cloud remains likely. Around 20’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, some outbreaks of rain likely before dawn (perhaps even as early as by midnight) as a slightly more active weather front arrives. Around 13’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy with bits and pieces of rain, mostly light or moderate. Drier in the afternoon, but remaining mostly cloudy with still a little drizzle at times possible. Cool for July, 17’C and breezy. Further light rain/drizzle in the evening and first part of the night, clear skies before dawn. Around 12’C.

Election Day sees a ridge of high pressure, decent sunny spells, some fair weather cloud – the better day of the week. Warmer, around 21’C, maybe a bit more. Clear skies at first overnight, though cloud thickening later, around 12’C.

Details become a bit trickier by Friday, but we start to see secondary lows developing off the main low pressure to our north.

Rain is likely on Friday as this secondary system develops and spreads across – but it could be just kind of damp with occasional rain, or it could be a spell of fairly heavy rain. Will need a couple more days to ascertain. Around 18’C or so.

Again the details for the weekend are not nailed down, but low pressure having more influence, so showers at best for Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures somewhere between 18’C and 20’C more likely – hardly joyful for July. There is also a chance of a spell of general rain on Sunday instead of showers.

I think this is the key point for the rest of July – if more low pressure systems then follow these into the UK, I think you can write-off a good chunk of summer.

However, if the next systems stall to our west, this could then allow more southerly flows – with heatwave conditions becoming possible.

I’m in the latter camp still, in terms of it being more likely to turn hot and settled, at least for a time mid-month, but there is more risk involved now we are getting closer.

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