A mixed week ahead with a westerly flow, and the remnants of Hurricane Ernesto by Friday – but some warm sunshine still in the mix too.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

We start the week with a ridge of high pressure, with low pressure systems to the east of Iceland, and one between Iceland and Scotland – a bit closer to the UK than they have been.

We start the day with hazy sunshine. Thicker cloud will spread across from the west during the morning, perhaps a spot of rain but most likely it will stay dry. Cloud breaking up somewhat later, but still hazy sunshine rather than full-on sunshine. Reaching around 20’C and becoming quite windy later. Some showers in the evening as a weather front pushes through, possible quite heavy. Cloudy and with some drizzle and perhaps a heavier shower for most of the rest of the night. Around 16’C.

Tuesday starts sunny. Another band of cloud will cross in the morning with a shower or two around, then back to sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. Warmer, 22’C, maybe 23’C, but still quite windy – especially later in the afternoon. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Quite a lot of cloud around on Wednesday, but it should break up at times to at least bring some hazy sunshine, more so in the morning. Still on the warm side, around 22’C and a lighter breeze once more. Mostly high/mid-level cloud overnight and around 14’C.

Thursday sees the remnants of Hurricane Ernesto approach – most of its energy now dissipated as part of the low pressure to our north, but still a notable feature.

Hazy sunshine to start the day, it will gradually cloud over with some rain in the afternoon – mostly light and patchy but a heavy burst possible. More notable will be the winds, gusting around 40mph around lunchtime so pretty strong for August in the UK. Still warmish, around 21’C. Cloudy for most of the night but the winds will ease, around 14’C.

Friday is uncertain, but it looks like a secondary low will have developed of the tail of Ernesto – quite how much it will of developed is uncertain, but a windy day is probable, some rain at some point is probable – but whether it is patchy rain for a couple of hours, or a longer spell of heavier rain remains the main question. Still on the warm side.

That does make the bank holiday weekend uncertain too, or at least the start of it – the secondary low potentially could still be around on Saturday – so there’s a chance of rain on Saturday, more likely the morning if so. But I stress – uncertain. If it has cleared on Friday, then sunny spells, fair-weather cloud is the more likely outcome.

For Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday, again not especially high confidence, but fairly mixed conditions, some cloud, some sun, around 21’C or so and maybe a weak weather front at some point bringing some patchy rain.

Probably back to somewhat warmer and sunnier after that, and maybe lasting into the beginning of September. Oh…autumn. It’s coming, isn’t it?