Monday 17th October 2022

Low pressure to our south-west will be in charge this week, pushing up warmer air – and some rain/showers at times too.

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph. There is some sunshine in the forecast too.

Mostly clear skies tonight though mist/fog forming in places by dawn, down to around 6’C.

Tuesday sees low pressure to our west with the warmer-than-usual flow from the south – the low is cut off from the jetstream to our north, which means it just sits there.

Early mist/fog patches will clear, and it will become sunny. Some high cloud later in the afternoon. Reaching around 17’C, with a bit of a breeze. Cloud thickening overnight with a band of heavy showers crossing at some point – they will be hit and miss. 11’C and breezy.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy – one or two scattered showers around in the morning, though some places missing them. More in the way of sunshine in the afternoon, albeit hazy – still a shower chance but fairly low chances. Rather breezy, we should just about scrape 17’C. Further showers, possibly heavy, pushing north either during the evening or first part of the night – a bit of uncertainty on timing. A rumble of thunder not impossible. A mild night – no lower than 13’C. A chance of another area of showery rain by dawn – though uncertain as to whether this will develop and the track.

Thursday starts uncertain, due to the aforementioned possible area of showery, heavy rain – I’d estimate a 30% chance of a spell of heavy rain to start the day. Rain or no rain, the rest of the day will be mostly sunny, albeit hazy sunshine at times. Around 18’C, though I wouldn’t rule out anything in the range of 16’C to 20’C. Still breezy too. Further heavy showers probable either in the evening or overnight, though uncertainty at this stage as to development – a small chance of thunder mixed in, and mild, 14’C.

By Friday our low pressure system edges ever closer.

By this stage we are notably uncertain in terms of when it will rain, and whether it will be showers or bands of rain. So Friday probably sees showers or a spell of general rain – I’d say showers more likely, and they could be heavy. Some limited sunshine and temperatures around 17’C. Breezy once more. Probably dry overnight – though not certain, around 11’C.

Very low confidence for Saturday, but current suggestions are that the low pressure will have spun back on itself, and veered back away from us. This means the slightly more likely outcome is sunny spells, albeit hazy at times – a small chance of a shower, around 17’C or so.

Very low confidence for Sunday once more, but current suggestions are that low pressure will be closer once more, so heavy showers more likely. Still around 17’C, give or take.

The somewhat more likely outcome for next week keeps us in a south-westerly or southerly flow, with low pressure often close to our west or south-west – so staying relatively warm for the time of year, with at least some rain at times. Windy at times too.

High pressure probably building by early November.

I still expect a good chunk of November to be drier than normal, and more settled. Probably slightly colder than normal with some overnight frosts – though perhaps temperatures will balance out as average. Later in November there are weak signals for something more unsettled.

December I currently also expect to be somewhat drier than normal, though conflicting signals on temperatures.

January and February are more likely to be wet and mild – though all will depend on whether we get a favourable sudden stratospheric warming event, or some other event occurs that changes currently expected weather patterns. We shall see.

Next full forecast will probably be on Friday.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *