Monday 17th June 2024

“Summer…?”. “Summer…? Is that you I see approaching?”. Yep, a definite improvement this week, though on shaky grounds.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

So we start the week with low pressure in charge, but it is splitting into two – one system heading towards Scandinavia, the other towards Spain…which allow high pressure to build instead.

Monday starts sunny. A fair amount of fair-weather cloud will bubble up, a small chance of an innocuous shower but most likely we stay dry. And there will continue to be sunny spells. Warm, 21’C, maybe 22’C. Some high level cloud spreading north in the evening and overnight thanks to the splitting low pressure, but the rain stays to the south of the UK. Down to around 12’C.

Tuesday starts fairly cloudy but bright. A spell of rain will spread north-east, but it looks like it will miss us and be for the far south-east corner of England – a relatively close call so don’t be surprised if there is a little morning rain, but it will soon pass if so. During the afternoon still fairly cloudy, some sunny spells and a moderate chance of a shower – around 20’C, give or take. The shower chance continues into the evening, dry and fairly cloudy overnight – no lower than around 12’C.

A fair amount of cloud on Wednesday, especially in the morning. Gradually sunshine amounts will increase – whether we get more sunshine than cloud in the afternoon is uncertain, but possible. Around 20’C, give or take. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

High pressure still just about in control for Thursday, though the thundery low over Spain/France getting a bit closer to us.

It looks a rather nice day, long spells of sunshine, some high cloud making it a little hazy – but the closest to a summer day we’ve had for a while. Warm, around 23’C, give or take. In the evening there is a chance of importing a thundery shower from France – more likely it stays over the continent, or at most clips Kent – but as always with convective outbreaks, it will be uncertain until the event. Around 14’C overnight.

Friday is a little complex – a small chance of some leftover cloud/rain from whatever developed on Thursday night, to start the day, but more likely we start fairly sunny. Generally then we are looking at sunny spells slowly giving way to cloudier skies as a weather front pushes in from the west. Reaching around 23’C – maybe a little more. Fairly cloudy with a little patchy rain overnight as a weather front spreads across from the west.

For Saturday, the Atlantic takes over somewhat, with cloud and patchy light rain turning into sunny spells and the odd shower. Temperatures likely still on the warm side, around 22’C but easily could be a couple either side.

But (most likely) for Sunday, high pressure re-asserts itself once more, bringing good sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud and temperatures ticking back up – say, 24’C or so. Low pressure won’t be far to our north, so it is within the bounds of possibility that it is cloudier then the more likely option, but I’m pretty confident it will be sunny.

The more likely option, at least to start the next week, is for high pressure to remain in control, bringing good spells of sunshine, and more warm weather – with a moderate chance of it becoming hot.

Summer! More or less, anyway. I’m not sure it will last – more likely next week goes back to being changeable as the week progresses, but we’ll see.

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