Monday 17th April 2023

A few dry and sometimes sunny days, but becoming cooler with some showers later in the week.

So we made it to 17’C today, and it kind of feels like spring is here.

Don’t get too excited.

Thanks to Liz for the photograph.

Clear skies at first tonight before a band of cloud spreads west, down to around 5’C. The band of cloud likely clearing west around dawn – a chance of some mist/fog patches also.

Tuesday sees high pressure over Scandinavia, with an easterly flow.

Early mist/fog/low cloud clearing swiftly to bring sunny spells, but further cloud moving in from the east around late morning onwards – some sunny spells possible, but most likely it is mostly cloudy. Reaching around 13’C in the morning, but becoming somewhat cooler in the afternoon, as the wind picks up. A small chance of an afternoon shower. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday sees more in the way of cloud, but there will be some bright/sunny spells at times – a small chance of a shower. Likely sunnier from around mid-afternoon onwards. 14’C but feeling a bit cool in the easterly wind. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C, still breezy.

Thursday looks mostly sunny to start, some cloud bubbling up in the afternoon with one or two showers later. Still a notably easterly breeze and a little uncertainty on temperatures, reaching somewhere between 12’C and 14’C, still feeling cool in the wind. A notable cold pool of air spreads across overnight, along with some scattered showers – perhaps heavy. Minimum temperatures somewhere between 1’C and 4’C, depending on cloud amounts.

By Friday, we remain in the easterly flow, now with a cold pool of air overhead.

Fairly cloudy with showers, some will be heavy. Maximum temperatures somewhere in the range of 7’C to 11’C – the latter only possible with some sunshine, which is uncertain. Yuck. It was only a few days ago that weather models were showing warmth for Friday (though I did say there were two possible outcomes – and we’ve got the cool one). Showers still possible overnight, but also some clear spells – if skies clear long enough then fog patches possible, or maybe frost in more sheltered spots. Down to roughly 4’C, but very give or take.

Details uncertain for the weekend, but there should be some form of improvement.

However, low pressure will be close by, and it is too early to know where it will be positioned, and hence the chance of rain or showers.

Going by more likely locations, then the more likely general theme sees showers at some points, but also there should be some sunny spells, and perhaps some more lengthy dry spells – lengthy as in a morning, or an afternoon! But any further details is uncertain – I cannot rule out a dry weekend, but nor can I rule out a washout.

Temperatures a little better as we’ll have lost out easterly and our cold spool, somewhere in the range of 12’C to 15’C more likely – nothing amazing, but pleasant enough assuming some sunshine.

At this time of year, there is less westerly forcing – so easterlies become more common (as per this week), but also northerly and southerly flows can be more common, with a meandering jetstream.

And both a northerly and a southerly flow look like attempting to set up next week – which means fairly cold temperatures or warm temperatures are both more likely than average temperatures.

More likely, it is the fairly cold northerly plunge that wins out at the beginning of next week, at around a 70% chance, with daytime temperatures in the range of 8’C to 10’C, sunshine and showers, perhaps with a wintry note, a chilly wind and a chance of overnight frosts.

A warm and sunny start to the week instead would be around a 20% chance, say 18’C to 24’C, and a 10% chance of somewhere in the middle.

Things will be more finely balanced later in the week, the colder air the slight favourite, the warm/very warm air just behind – say 40% to 35% to 30%, cold to warm to average.

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