Monday 16th May 2022

A warm week ahead but with some heavy, thundery showers at times.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph?

Tonight sees reasonably clear skies with temperatures down to around 10’C.

Tuesday continues the same set-up, high pressure loosely in control but with a large area of low pressure to the west driving warmth and instability north.

Tuesday should be the warmest day of the year so far. Decent sunny spells but also variable amounts of cloud – both fair weather cloud and also some high/medium level cloud making the sunshine hazy at times. We should reach around 25’C. By early evening a small band of heavy showers will cross – hit and miss, some places staying dry, others getting a heavy shower or two, with a small chance of thunder. Mostly clear skies following with temperatures down to around 11’C.

Wednesday starts sunny though it will quickly become hazy as high cloud moves up from the south. Warm, reaching around 22’C – a small chance of a stray afternoon shower. By the evening, another batch of heavy showers will spread up from the south/south-west – some very heavy rain possible, as is thunder. However, some uncertainty – some places may miss out or just get a bit of rain. Skies clearing overnight, down to around 12’C.

Thursday sees long spells of sunshine in the morning – more in the way of high cloud once again in the afternoon making things hazy. Warm, reaching around 22’C. Quite cloud overnight, though some clear spells at times, down to around 12’C.

Friday sees the low pressure to our west edge closer – though remaining quite some way to our north-west. Generally more cloud around – a chance of a spell of general rain in the morning, though uncertain as it may be further east – otherwise sunny spells and a scattering of showers, with temperatures likely a bit fresher, say 19’C. Breezy too. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Saturday then sees high pressure trying to build from the south once more.

A reasonably pleasant day – some cloud at times, but sunny spells should outnumber cloudy spells overall. Around 19’C to 21’C. Reasonable clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Sunday should be a little warmer though uncertainty on cloud amounts – currently I’d suggest more cloud than sunshine. Temperatures somewhere between 20’C and 23’C.

The slightly more likely outcome for next week would see some changeable conditions earlier in the week and less warm, with drier weather later in the week and probably warm once more.

The more likely general pattern for the end of May and beginning of June sees temperatures warmer than normal, with more dry, fair days than showery days – though some changeable spells mixed into the broadly decent weather.

I’m away for a few days again (sunny Croatia this time), so next full forecast will probably be Friday evening, maybe Saturday morning.

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