Monday 16th January 2023

A cold week ahead with some sunshine and some overnight frosts. It looks like it will be dry, but it is the kind of set-up where little features can pop up at short notice to bring wintry showers.

It’s a good job I’ve kept some of the unused photographs from December’s cold spell – thanks to Tracy for this one.

Tonight sees clear skies at first, some high/mid-level cloud later in the night. Frosty, widely down to around -4’C – perhaps as low as -6’C in the most sheltered spots.

For Tuesday and the next few days we are in a cold northerly (ish) flow, with low pressure in charge.

If it were spring onwards, then there would be plenty of showers but there is always minimal convection over land in winter, so instead it will be dry. Hazy sunshine due to some high/mid-level cloud over the south of the UK, though tending to be sunnier later. Cold, 3’C. Clear spells overnight, though a weak feature may bring a bit of cloud and the odd scattered light snow shower later in the night – no higher than a 20% chance, though if so expect it rather icy by dawn. Down to around -2’C or so, with a bit more of a breeze.

Wednesday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. It should be dry – cannot totally rule out a light wintry shower. Around 4’C and breezy. Mostly clear skies overnight and frosty, down to around -2’C.

Thursday remains cold but sunny – a little bit of cloud at times and again a light wintry shower not impossible, though most likely dry. Around 4’C with a light breeze at most. Clear skies overnight and frosty – the lighter winds means temperatures will fall further, roughly in the range of -3’C to -5’C. Some high cloud probable by dawn.

Friday has a hint of uncertainty as a weather front tries to push in from the west, though with high pressure building close to our east, it will struggle. Most likely, the weather front stays to our west and decays, and we stay sunny or hazy, and it remains cold. 4’C, maybe 5’C. Most likely a cold and frosty night, roughly down to around -3’C but could be 2-3’C either side. Small chance of fog, also small chance of something cloudier with temperatures above freezing.

By Saturday we have some form of battle forming, with weather fronts trying to push in from the west once more, but high pressure building over the UK and up through Scandinavia.

Fine margins for the weekend, but the slightly more likely outcome is that we remain in the cold and sunny air mass – and the milder, cloudy and damp weather is close to our west. Assuming so we’ll be looking at temperatures around 4’C. Fine margins again overnight, but more likely we remain in the cold air mass, so frosty and around -3’C – perhaps some fog.

An even closer call between the two air masses for Sunday, so my best guess is that maybe there is a bit of mixing out of the cold, and some more cloud around, perhaps some drizzle and around 5’C. Low confidence on details though – that cold block to the east could easily become more established.

High pressure likely to be over or close to the UK next week, so often dry – though I would have thought perhaps one weather front may cross early in the week.

Positioning of said high pressure uncertain at this stage, so we could be looking at something cold or more normal in terms of temperatures – perhaps we’ll vary between colder and milder air masses. Overnight frost and/or fog will be possible too. If a colder air mass, I wouldn’t rule out some light wintry showers.

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