Monday 16th August 2021

I hope you like cloud.

It will be mostly dry this week bar the odd shower, and there will be some brightness at times, along with some sunny spells – but cloud is the main theme.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Clear spells for the first half of the night, becoming cloudy later from the north, down to around 11’C.

For Tuesday we have high pressure to our west, low pressure to our east, with a north-westerly flow.

It will be mostly cloudy, a little light rain or drizzle possible, more likely in the morning – with limited sunny spells. Breezy and just about getting to 20’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd bit of light rain or drizzle possible, and mild, around 14’C.

Wednesday will again be mostly cloudy. There will be some bright/sunny spells at times, but the main theme will be cloud. Around 21’C. Fairly cloudy overnight though a few clear spells, down to around 13’C.

Thursday sees low pressure starting to push in from the west – again, a lot of cloud around but there will be some sunny spells at times. Also a few heavy showers breaking out in the afternoon, fairly hit and miss, say around a 40% chance of catching a shower. Around 21’C. Clear spells overnight though cloud probably thickening before dawn, around 12’C.

Friday sees the approaching low pressure system stall to our west, allowing a brief southerly flow.

Don’t get too excited as there will be plenty of cloud, but there will be some sunshine at times, more likely in the morning and from late afternoon, and it will feel warmer, say 23’C. But if sunshine amounts surprise, then add a few degrees on. Clear spells overnight and mild, 15’C. A chance of mist/fog forming before dawn.

Saturday is uncertain at this stage and depends on how close the stalled and weakening low pressure system to our west is. The slightly more likely outcome is that it is close to our west and we end up with sunny spells or hazy sunshine, and temperatures somewhere around 26’C. However, the slightly less likely outcome sees a more progressive move of the low pressure system over the UK, with some heavy downpours and temperatures around 21’C.

Two very different possible outcomes, and around 55/45 in a percentage split. Humid whichever outcome though.

A good chance of heavy showers overnight from either outcome, and if we had the hot and sunny day then thunderstorms may well occur overnight.

Sunday is again uncertain. The more likely outcomes see heavy showers, but that could be sunshine and heavy showers, or cloudier with showers/showery rain. However, there is a small chance of keeping the hot and sunny weather from Saturday.

Next week should see high pressure building close to or over the UK. Positioning uncertain though at the moment it doesn’t look favourable for hot weather, more likely warm or very warm conditions.

It should be reasonably sunny, though there may be some cloud at times, depending on where the high pressure situates itself. Showers still possible Monday/Tuesday.

Early signs for the bank holiday weekend are promising – the most likely outcome would be warm/very warm with sunny spells. However, a showery spell could instead be possible – looking at roughly a 75/25 split in terms of likelihood.

Also possible the high pressure could orientate itself either for bank holiday weekend or early September so that we import something hot from the south. Small chances, but worth keeping an eye on.

And tentative signs of some more warm sunshine in September, but we’ll see – my forecasts have been too optimistic in terms of sunshine quite a few times this summer.

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