Monday 15th November 2021

More mild nothingness. But remember that cold spell that I keep mentioning for late November? Keep reading…

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

A chilly night tonight, clear spells developing, with mist and fog developing fairly widely – not everywhere though. Down to around 3’C.

Tuesday starts with mist, fog or low cloud for many – though one or two spots may see some early sunshine. A weak weather front will cross during the day, bringing cloud and the odd spot of light rain. 11’C. Clear spells overnight, some patchy cloud, a little breezy too, 6’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure close to our south-west.

Sunny spells, though hazy at times with high/mid level cloud around quite often. 11’C in a fairly light westerly breeze. Clear spells and chilly overnight, down to around 5’C – though cloud spreading across from the west later, though likely rather high/mid level stuff.

Thursday likely sees quite a lot of cloud around, especially in the afternoon. Some bright spells with more high/mid level cloud at times – that more likely in the morning. Mild in a westerly breeze, 14’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, around 10’C.

Friday sees high pressure remain in charge over the south of the UK. Lots of cloud still, though some sunshine possible at times – not especially confident though. Mild, 13’C. Cloudy to start overnight, though some clear spells likely to develop as the night goes on, and becoming chilly, down to around 5’C.

By Saturday, high pressure will be shifting to the west, allowing a more north-westerly flow, and then a northerly flow to develop.

Sunny spells, some cloud – still mild as the colder air remains to our north at this stage, 12’C. Tending to cloud overnight later in the day, with a weak weather front bringing some patchy rain either during the evening or overnight. A frost possible by dawn – but that will depend on how quickly the weather front clears.

Sunday sees a cold northerly flow. Nothing unusual for the time of year – but a distinct change. Sunny spells, some fair weather cloud and temperatures around 8’C. It will feel colder than that in the northerly wind. Clear spells overnight, it might be too windy for a frost but either way it will be cold.

Next week starts with high pressure cloud to our west. Probably often sunny by day, but potentially some cloud at times. Temperatures around 8’C by day, and around 0’C overnight, though that depending on cloud/wind amounts – so overnight frosts very possible, but impossible to be sure on exact conditions this far out.

Two broad schools of thought as to where we go for the rest of next week and into next weekend (and probably beyond).

1 – High pressure stays close to the west or over the UK, most likely slightly/somewhat colder than normal but nothing unusual, overnight frosts likely, fog possible and staying dry.
2 – High pressure remains to our west, perhaps more north-west, and we get much colder air from the Arctic, perhaps as early as Thursday. Overnight significant frosts, cold northerly winds, daytime temperatures somewhere between 1’C and 5’C – some showers possible at times – and yes, they could be of sleet or snow.

Option 2 is currently more likely, say around 60/40 favourite.

I shall leave you on that cliff-hanger.

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