Monday 15th June 2020

I like most weather but my very favourite is warm sunshine with torrential, thundery downpours. I shall get my wish this week.

Thanks to Andy for the moody photograph. And dogs.

The evening starts with a scattering of very heavy showers, perhaps still some thunder – some places will stay dry though. Skies clearing overnight, down to around 14’C – though one or two fog patches may form for a time.

Tuesday is a day of sunny spells and heavy showers. Showers developing from mid-morning, some very heavy downpours possible with localised flooding, some thunder also. A few places will miss them, say around an 80% chance of catching one or day – they will be fairly slow moving again so they could last a while. And later in the afternoon into the evening, the shower risk should be much lower…still possible but much less likely. Very warm and a bit humid, around 24’C in the sunny spells. Variable cloud overnight, fog patches may form also, around 14’C.

Wednesday sees more heavy, thundery downpours. Overall more cloud around too, but there will be hazy sunshine at times – the main story will be repeated heavy downpours, torrential rain with localised flooding possible, thundery likely – yes, likely. Most places getting a few downpours, but such is the nature of showers I cannot totally rule out your location missing them all. Warm and a bit humid, 22’C. Showers continue in the evening and gradually turn into more persistent rain overnight – some heavy. Around 14’C again.

By Thursday we have this vaguely re-formed low pressure trough over the south of the UK, which has been hanging around for a week or so now.

The overnight band of rain should move north and west during the morning, something brighter with some sunny spells – not promising much – will follow…with more heavy, thundery downpours quickly developing! We should get to around 21’C.

I said should, as there is a fair chance that the overnight rain band sticks around longer by not clearing north and west…development is still a bit on edge, so we may instead end up with general rain and lower temperatures.

Thursday night sees areas of cloud, down to around 13’C.

Friday sees more showers. There will be some sunshine at times – perhaps more cloud than sun overall, especially in the morning. Some showers develop – not as widespread as recently so you might miss them. Possibly heavy and thundery, but also less likely to be so than recent days. Around 21’C. Variable cloud overnight, around 13’C.

Saturday sees high pressure start to poke its nose across the south of the UK – though with a notably large area of low pressure to the west of Ireland – quite what the low pressure ends up doing is uncertain at the moment.

Dealing with what we do know, Saturday will see sunny spells. A bit of cloud around at times, but more sunshine than cloud is likely. I cannot rule out a shower, but only a small chance. And it should be warm or very warm – around 23’C, give or take.

Sunday remains uncertain…we need to resolve what the low pressure will do first. More likely would be another day of sunny spells and temperatures on the very warm side – but that low pressure could send a weather front across instead.

I’m unsure about early next week, though I expect a good chunk of next week to see good amounts of sunshine and some very warm temperatures, with high pressure likely to be in control for most of it.

There is a chance of showers at times, especially early next week, but it should overall be a much more settled week. Should!

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