Monday 15th February 2021

Much milder this week, though with rain at times too. And possibly a taste of spring for this weekend and/or early next week.

Thanks to Kathryn for the photograph – I had some really good photographs sent in this week…but the sheep seem to be waiting for my weather forecast, so it could only be this.

Tonight sees some showery rain for an hour or two either side of midnight, then dry and fairly cloudy. 8’C.

Tuesday morning sees a band of showery rain cross – nothing especially notable. Some sunny spells follow, but one or two scattered heavy showers around later in the afternoon too – not everyone catching one. 11’C. Clear spells at first overnight, but cloud thickening with rain arriving roughly around dawn, or a bit earlier. 7’C.

Wednesday sees outbreaks of rain erratically spreading north. Not always raining, some drier spells, but generally fairly rainy – some heavy bursts mixed in. Around 10’C. The rain should clear north mid/late evening, to leave a dry night with variable cloud, down to around 7’C.

Thursday morning sees rain spreading east – a few hours of persistent rain. Sunny spells follow with a small chance of a shower, around 8’C. Clear spells at first overnight and rather chilly, down to around 2’C – cloud thickening later in the night.

Friday starts dry – perhaps bright. Rain will spread across later, it looks like it will be fairly light/moderate and patchy. Becoming windy too, around 10’C. Some rain possible overnight – not sure at this stage how close the weather front to the west will be.

Saturday starts to see a bit of a change with higher pressure developing to our south-east – and weather fronts more stationary to our west.

Where the weather front is positioned will be key – it could be over us bringing some rain, or close to our west keeping us mostly cloudy. Either way, mild.

But the slightly more likely outcome is that it is further west and we get some decent sunny spells – and in a southerly wind, 14’C, maybe 15’C is feasible – which is pretty springlike.

Sunday will again depend on the position of the weather front – and it will be in a similar position to Saturday, most likely. So a repeat of Saturday is most likely, though the spring-like conditions are the slight favourite.

For early next week it looks like high pressure will continue close to our south-east, allowing this flow of warmer air from the south.

Still a bit tentative – a slight change in wind direction from current projections could make temperatures rather average, but the most likely outcome is a couple of very pleasant spring-like days, temperatures between 14’C and 16’C – though I wouldn’t rule out an 18’C with perfect alignment.

Still a bit to go before it is definite, but a fairly good chance of some pseudo-warmth perhaps this weekend, but more likely early next week. And it is still February.

High pressure most likely stays on the scene into March and during much of March, though we’ll probably return to average temperatures with overnight frosts late next week, and could easily return to much colder conditions in early March, with snow showers possible.

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