Monday 15th August 2022

The breakdown has begun – and we should all see some downpours in the next couple of days.

Thanks to James for the photograph – I do actually have a suitable photograph saved ready for when the sunshine stopped.

Scattered heavy showers this evening – possibly with a little thunder, possibly some torrential rain should you catch a shower. Fairly cloudy overnight so it remains warm, and now a bit humid too – likely no lower than 18’C. A shower possible by dawn.

Tuesday sees a kind of slack low pressure loosely developed over NW Europe, including the UK.

Hazy sunshine to start the day, with the odd shower possible. From around lunchtime onwards, heavy showers breaking out widely – torrential downpours easily possible, thunder/lightning possible, a small chance of hail. More likely you’ll catch at least a couple – but some places could stay dry (or mostly dry). Catch a particularly torrential downpour, and localised flooding will be possible. Still quite hot and humid, reaching around 26’C – give or take. Showers still possible in the evening, though less likely and less likely to be so heavy. Fairly cloudy overnight – and towards dawn it looks like heavy/very heavy and possibly thundery showers may break out more widely – some uncertainty on this though. Another fairly warm night, down to around 17’C.

Wednesday has some uncertainty – a band of heavy/very heavy showers/showery rain will probably be somewhere over the south of England, thunder possible – and this will erratically and slowly move south-east so becoming drier as the day goes on. Most likely this includes the local area, but there is a small chance this band develops further south and we end up with a mostly cloudy day instead. Temperatures around 21’C, give or take. Mostly cloudy overnight – a shower possible but not likely. Down to around 15’C.

Thursday sees some pretty decent sunny spells – though hazy from around lunchtime, and a fair amount of fair-weather cloud too. We should reach around 25’C. Cloudy overnight with a weather front likely to push through, though some uncertainty on this. The more likely outcome does see some heavy showery rain overnight with it clearing by dawn, though perhaps instead it moves across more slowly, with only some bits of showery rain left by time it arrives – say around dawn. Another fairly warm night, around 17’C.

Friday likely starts cloudy, depending on how the overnight weather front progressed – if it progressed slowly then there may be some showery rain in the morning too. Sunny spells will follow, and temperatures up to around 26’C – give or take and depending on how quickly that weather front clears. Mostly clear skies overnight, and finally a much fresher night, down to around 12’C.

By Saturday we have the Azores High pushing in from the south-west again, but the jetstream showing more life to our north.

For Saturday it means decent spells of sunshine in the morning, though more cloud at times in the afternoon – temperatures around 23’C. Cloud thickening overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday is uncertain, but the more likely outcome sees rain spreading across from the west – yes, a proper band of rain. Windy, warmish and humid too.

Next week likely starts very warm/quite hot, though uncertain otherwise – I’d guess a mixture of sunny spells and showers.

Growing suggestions that high pressure settles things down in time for the Bank Holiday weekend – far from certain but the more likely outcome. Temperatures more likely very warm/quite hot – but proper hot very plausible once more. Possibly with some thundery showers at some point.

Generally I still think changeable conditions more likely towards the end of August and beginning of September, but overall balancing out at hotter, sunnier and drier than normal.

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