Monday 15th August 2022 – Shower/Thunderstorm Chances

As is normally the case, the thundery breakdown is difficult to predict in detail. But it is starting.

I don’t think we are best placed today for showers or thunderstorms – they could feasibly break out anywhere in the UK, but I’d favour eastern coastal regions, and much of the west/north of the UK as having the better chances today.

That said, I’d still suggest around a 30% chance today of catching a shower – which could easily be thundery. Maybe it would just be some large spots of rain, maybe it would be a torrential downpour – or something in between. Catch a torrential downpour, then localised flooding will be possible.

The more likely time to catch one may be early afternoon when sea breeze convergence looks possible to be favourable in our area – or during the evening. Late afternoon less likely, but certainly possible.

Of course, a 30% chance of catching a shower means a 70% chance of staying dry, and temperatures will reach around 30’C or so, assuming sufficient sunshine – and there will be sunshine for all, albeit hazy at times.

Really, it will be a case of watching the skies and the radar/lightning detector. I can give you my analysis of the chances, as I have done, as can others – but we won’t really know until we see the clouds going up – if they do.

Tuesday and Wednesday should have higher chances of showers/downpours/thunder – full update this evening.

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