Cool and showery to start the week, but becoming drier and…somewhat warmer?

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Today starts cloudy as a weather front spreads south-east, bringing some showery rain, likely heavy/very heavy for a short spell before it clears mid-morning. Sunny spells and scattered showers follow, some heavy, a small chance of hail/thunder too. Winds fairly strong but notably gusty in showers. 11’C at best. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a stray shower still possible and remaining windy – down to 6’C or so.

The general picture for Tuesday sees our low pressure slide into the continent, with high pressure trying to build in from the west.

Plenty of cloud in the morning and some showers – showers likely continue all day, more likely you get at least a couple but maybe you’ll miss them. Gradually sunshine amounts will increase in the afternoon. Still in the cool northerly wind, 12’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though a weak feature will bring some more cloud and a chance of a shower during the early hours, before reverting to clear skies. Down to around 3’C.

Wednesday starts sunny, but cloud will fairly quickly build up with more cloud than sunshine overall, and some showers likely break out. Some uncertainty on the extent and intensity of showers, but more likely getting at least a couple of showers and they could be heavy. On the cool side again, around 10’C, maybe 11’C but at least the northerly wind now more a breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight – down to around 2’C with a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Thursday starts sunny but again cloud will build from around mid-morning, and it will be on the cloudier side of the spectrum for the rest of the day – though some bright/sunny spells. Remaining dry though, and around 12’C. A weather front spreads south overnight bringing some mostly light rain/drizzle. Down to around 7’C.

Friday looks fairly cloudy – some brightness at times, but also some showers possible. Temperatures ticking up a little, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Cloud tending to clear overnight to clear spells – down to around 4’C.

For the weekend, high pressure continues to try to nudge in from the west.

It’s still uncertain as to whether it gets far enough east to cut off the cooler northerly flow – very fine margins between 10’C and 15’C in this set-up. Either way, still probably quite a lot of cloud, some sunny spells, and probably dry. Likely chilly overnight.

Likewise for Sunday, though the difference between the two equally possible outcomes is starker – and still very fine margins.

In the scenario where high pressure doesn’t quite get far enough across, cloudier, perhaps a shower and around 12’C. In the scenario where it does, sunny and 20’C.

At the moment it’s a coin toss between the outcomes – the model I trust more is going for the cooler solution, and has been pretty consistent – but my head says it is undoing the progress of high pressure from the west and the warmer solution is perhaps more likely. So put both judgements together and therefore I make it 50/50.

Next week does look more likely to see more cooler flows – dry more likely than wet, cloudy more likely than sunny, with high pressure close to our north – not a friendly position for those looking for some spring warmth (do I need to book another holiday?!), but at least likely dry.

Next forecast on Friday morning.