Monday 14th October 2024

Becoming much warmer than normal, but some heavy showery rain at times too.

Thanks to Fiona for the photoghraph.

So we start the week with a small area of low pressure crossing the country, with another heading towards Spain – that and the larger air of low pressure to our west will drive warmth our way. And more rain.

Monday starts with rain, heavy perhaps very heavy. The rain clear pretty quickly during the morning, some light rain/drizzle still possible into lunchtime but becoming dry, though remaining mostly cloudy. Reaching around 12’C. Staying mostly cloudy overnight, the odd spot of drizzle possible but mostly it will be dry. Down to around 9’C.

Tuesday will be cloudy but mostly dry, bar the odd spot of light rain/drizzle. Towards the end of the day, something a bit brighter possible. Temperatures much higher than they have been, in a southerly breeze, 17’C should be reached. Some showers likely in the evening and overnight, though the bulk of the rain should be further to our west – I wouldn’t say that the position is guaranteed though. A mild night, 14’C.

Some uncertainty on details for Wednesday, at least for timings of showers. During the morning, more likely the bulk of the showers/rain remain to our west, though certainly a shower or two will be possible, which could be heavy/very heavy – but also some bright spells possible in amongst plenty of cloud – and 21’C could be reached. Later in the afternoon or evening, the heavier and more persistent rain likely spreads across. Most likely overnight, the rain clear east leaving a rather cloudy night, perhaps still some drizzle at times – and a very mild night at 15’C.

Thursday looks a more pleasant day, any remaining cloud will break up during the morning to leave sunny spells, some high cloud, some fair-weather cloud. Still on the quite warm side for the time of year, around 17’C or so. Reasonably clear skies overnight, some high cloud though, down to around 8’C.

By Friday we have more of a westerly flow developing, with a large area of low pressure heading towards us.

Friday is somewhat uncertain – the somewhat more likely outcome is for a fine and pleasant day, spells of hazy sunshine most of the day – though cloud thickening towards late afternoon. But there is instead a smallish chance of further heavy rain spreading up from France. Around 16’C. A band of rain likely crossing either evening or overnight – some uncertainty at this stage.

Not especially high confidence for the weekend, but more likely Saturday is fair with some sunny spells – around 14’C or so.

For Sunday the more likely outcome is something cloudier with some rain – probably light/moderate and patchy, though as I said, pretty low confidence on details. Likely a bit warmer again though, say 16’C.

Next week likely starts warmer than usual again, though uncertain on conditions otherwise – there are hints of longer dry spells in late October, but no more than hints right now.