Monday 14th November 2022

Becoming unsettled once more, with temperatures more seasonal.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

It’s a semi-interesting set-up at the moment, the jetstream is firing up pretty strongly, due to a plunge of cold air into USA – but it is coming up against a pretty stubborn block of high pressure towards Scandinavia.

So the main large low pressure trough will be stuck to our west, but it will push weather fronts across the UK – which then cannot progress any further east due to the block, and (for now) are pushed further north, then back into the circulation in the Atlantic.

Should the blocking high to our east extend this way – the potential is for much drier and cooler/colder air. It’s intriguing, but easterly flows are pretty rare in November.

Anyway…this evening sees a weak weather front crossing bringing 30 minutes of rain (and has probably cleared before I post this!), clear skies for a short while before the next weather front arrives around 3/4am, bringing initially patchy rain. Down to around 9’C and quite windy towards dawn.

So Tuesday sees high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure to our west – the latter now in charge.

It starts windy with some rain, which will become heavy for a time in the morning. Clearing around lunchtime or just after, followed by sunny spells and scattered showers – a heavy shower particularly possible early evening. Still pretty mild, 14’C. Scattered heavy showers overnight, down to around 8’C.

Wednesday morning sees sunny spells and scattered showers – the showers mostly towards the south coast but a few should have the oomph to push this far inland. Dry and bright in the afternoon, but cloud will gradually thicken as the next weather front approaches. 11’C and breezy. Rain then arrives late afternoon/early evening, some heavy, perhaps very heavy rain as it pushes through – I guess 3 or so hours of rain but frequent heavy showers likely to follow anyway. Windy too. Showers less likely as the night goes on, though still possible – no lower than around 8’C.

Thursday is a bit uncertain as will depend on where the overnight cut-off low got to, but more likely it is further north, so possible that there is some showery bits of rain still around in the morning – more likely sunny spells in the afternoon. Generally it is an improving picture during the day – cloudier earlier and showers more likely earlier. Cool and windy, around 10’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and fairly chilly, down to around 5’C.

Friday looks fair under a ridge of high pressure – decent spells of sunshine, a bit of cloud around. 10’C. Clear skies probable overnight, there may even be a frost – I know, a frost in November. Crazy. Uncertain how chilly it will get, but a fair estimate would be minimums of somewhere between 0’C and 3’C (take off a couple if notably rural).

By Saturday, our Scandinavian high pressure has taken advantage and extended westwards, close to the UK. But the jetstream is strengthening once more…and there is only one winner.

Saturday starts chilly and it should be sunny. Reaching around 8’C – a notable difference to late. A band of rain will push across either evening or more likely overnight, probably some heavy rain, probably some fairly strong winds. How low temperatures get will depend on the timing of the band of rain, 4’C would be a fair estimate – but the later it arrives then the colder it will get before.

Sunday most likely sees sunny spells and a small chance of a shower. Breezy, 10’C.

Suggestions next week that the strong jetstream will tilt south-east, towards France/Spain – which does mean more rain for us in the south of England, but it also means cooler temperatures – with the cooler/colder air mass towards Scandinavia filtering our way instead. Daytime maxes between 6’C and 9’C – I might even need a jumper at last.

It’s not a particularly normal pattern, so some scepticism should be allotted. It is at least semi-interesting – and not impossible that it becomes a proper cold pattern before the end of November, though a reversal to mild and wet is far more likely.

Still pretty strong signals for a mostly dry and settled December. But mild or cold? Or a mix? Not sure yet.

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