Monday 14th December 2020

So, milder with rain at times for the next week or so. But a change to colder conditions is currently the favourite for around Christmas…oooh!

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

This evening sees a few scattered heavy showers, clear spells overnight though the odd stray shower still possible, down to around 5’C.

Tuesday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. One or two showers may push this far inland from the south-west. Milder, 11’C and breezy. Cloud thickening overnight and becoming quite windy, 8’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy, though the cloud perhaps thin enough for some hazy sunshine in the morning. A band of rain will push east slowly during the afternoon – several hours of rain and quite heavy. 10’C, maybe 11’C. Rain clearing during the evening, clear spells overnight though a chance of a heavy shower also, down to around 5’C.

Thursday will be sunny and breezy. Some high cloud building as the afternoon goes on. 10’C. Cloudy overnight with some showery rain, mild with strong winds also, 11’C.

Friday will be cloudy with strong winds – but mild. Some showery bits of rain possible in the morning, with further heavy rain likely either afternoon or evening (or possibly both). Close to 13’C. Further outbreaks of rain likely overnight, a bit less windy, 11’C.

Saturday may start wet – uncertain quite when the overnight rain will clear. Sunny spells with the odd scattered shower should follow. Still quite windy and mild, 11’C.

Sunday probably seeing sunny spells and somewhat cooler conditions – but confidence not especially high.

Next week then sees a battle between milder air to the south-west trying to spread up, and colder weather to the north trying to filter down. The cold air winning out is currently the favourite, around a 60% chance though greater uncertainty on the timing of its victory.

Slight favourite would see milder air temporarily winning for Monday and Tuesday, perhaps Wednesday – with further heavy rain and strong winds at times.

And then for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day colder air could be arriving. Yes, this means that there is a very small chance of a white Christmas, 10% chance at most. I’d suggest a somewhat less small chance of seeing snow falling after Christmas Day.

Any more details on the potential cold spell, including how long for, when it starts, when it ends – whether it will be dry and frosty, or if there is a chance of wintry showers, is all currently uncertain.

This is a long-signalled window of opportunity for a cold spell roughly between Christmas and New Year, perhaps into the first few days of 2021. It’s around a 60% chance – mild and wet could still win out which is our usual prevailing weather for December.

I still expect January to be mostly mild – wet and windy quite often too.

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