Low pressure is back, though it isn’t an especially wet outlook – and there will be some pleasant sunny days too. Did we really just have 3 weeks of pretty much unbroken sunshine? Was it even 4 weeks? I lost count.

No photographs so you’ll have to contend with one of mine, from Notting Hill.

The general set-up sees low pressure taking over, the main area currently towards Iceland, with a cut-off low in part of the same system, just to the north-west of Spain – and heading our way for Tuesday.

Today isn’t too bad, a mostly sunny start (one or two stray fog patches) but quickly clouding over. A few showers around in the morning and early afternoon, they should be light/moderate in nature, and a bit of brightness at times. Around 14’C in south-westerly breeze. Cloudy overnight with some occasional rain, no lower than around 10’C.

Tuesday may start with some rain, the timing of the overnight rain is quite uncertain. Otherwise quite cloudy but with some sunny spells – showers will develop, likely heavy, possibly very heavy and/or thundery, and perhaps turning into general rain by the end of the day, though that aspect is uncertain. Quite warm and a little humid, around 17’C. Worth stressing a fair dollop of uncertainty for Tuesday. Rain/showers gradually clearing north and west overnight, and likely dry for much of the night – though some uncertainty again. Down to around 6’C.

Wednesday more likely starts sunny, though there might still be some cloud around from Tuesday’s low pressure system. Either way there should be good spells of sunshine for most of the rest of the day, reaching around 15’C. Clear skies and a chilly night likely, down to around 2’C.

Thursday looks a reasonable day too. Sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud bubbling up, and a 40% chance of a shower or two, but nothing especially heavy if you do catch one. Around 17’C or so and feeling quite warm again. Clear spells for much of the night, though tending to cloud over later. Down to around 3’C.

Good Friday sees the next low pressure system move in – though there is some uncertainty as to how it behaves, and hence how much (or how little) rain we receive.

A mostly cloudy day with some rain at times – but the rain tending to be on the light and patchy side, perhaps more moderate at times. Around 14’C, give or take.

Very low confidence for Saturday, but the current suggestion is that low pressure spins back on itself and heads back west, before heading south. It’s an unusual movement, but assuming the models are right (and my reading of them) this would lead to a reasonably sunny day, with temperatures around 16’C.

Less likely outcomes would be for something cloudier, cooler and showery instead.

Easter Sunday is likewise uncertain, I’d suggest a mixture of sunny spells and cloudier spells is more likely, with a chance of a shower or two, and around 15’C. A wet day is unlikely.

I’m pretty much guessing for Easter Monday as the models are all over the place, dry more likely than wet, sunny/cloudy/mixed roughly as likely as each other, quite warm slightly more likely than quite cool.

I’ll try and do the next forecast on Thursday morning – it will take another couple of days for the Easter forecast to firm up, though I think we are almost there for Friday’s forecast – it is the days after which are uncertain.

Still expecting a return to sunshine and warmth for later in the month.