Becoming hot. But not for too long.
Thanks to Paul for the photograph.
Tonight sees mostly clear skies, temperatures down to around 10’C.
Tuesday sees high pressure building from the south, where there is some real heat – you may well have seen that temperatures in Spain are currently 40’C or more in many places.
It will start sunny – some fair weather cloud will bubble up, especially for the lunch time period, but good spells of sunshine will prevail for the rest of the day. Very warm, 23’C, maybe 24’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.
Wednesday will see good spells of sunshine. Some high cloud at times, a bit of fair weather cloud too, but otherwise sunny. Quite hot, 26’C is feasible, give or take. Mostly clear skies overnight though some high cloud by dawn, down to around 13’C.
By Thursday the position of the high pressure adjusts enough to allow some of the heat to our south to start to drift north – but also there will be a lot of high cloud, so we’ll be looking at hazy sunshine all day. On the hot side, though exactly how hot will depend on how hazy the sunshine is – somewhere between 26’C and 28’C. A fairly warm night, down to around 15’C.
Friday will probably be the hottest day of this spell. The high cloud shifts north to leave long spells of sunshine and it will reach 30’C, perhaps a little more. A warm night, some cloud developing and a chance of a shower (this is where things become uncertain) – eventually dropping to around 18’C.
Saturday sees fresher air spread down from the north at some point, bringing cloud and at least some heavy, showery rain, possibly thundery – but timing is uncertain. The slightly more likely outcome is that this band of cloud and some showery rain crosses either late morning or during the afternoon – very warm/quite hot and humid with hazy sunshine beforehand, say somewhere between 24’C and 28’C.
It could arrive early morning instead, which would keep temperatures around 22’C – with the warmest weather later in the day once the weather front clears.
There is still a small chance the heat hangs on until the evening, or even overnight – in which case 32’C or more could be reached.
I currently don’t expect anything too notable in terms of downpours – just some showery rain, probably some heavy – and only a small chance of thunder. But the whole set-up is still uncertain, so there could be upgrades for heat, rain and/or thunder as we approach.
Sunday is also uncertain. The slightly more likely outcome would see variable cloud, some sunny spells and remaining on the warm side, say 22’C. The slightly less likely outcome sees something cloudier and cooler, with some patchy rain.
There is an outside chance that we hang onto the heat, and likewise an outside chance of some downpours.
Next week looks like seeing high pressure to our west with a north-westerly – a summer La Niña set-up if ever I saw one. However there is actually likely to be some unusually warm air going over the top of the high pressure so the week should start warm or very warm – potentially even quite hot, especially Tuesday/Wednesday – with plenty of sunshine, and some cloud. This isn’t certain but is by some way the more likely outcome for next week.
Towards the end of next week and into next weekend (I know there are a few Glastonbury peeps reading) the slightly more likely outcome is that it becomes cooler, cloudier with an increased chance of showers. Low confidence at this stage, as you’d expect 10 days away.