Monday 13th February 2022

A mild week ahead, with a mixture of sunshine, cloud and even a little bit of rain.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph – yes I’ve run out of photographs except for sunsets and frost, and I’m not expecting much frost this week.

Clear skies tonight, mist/fog forming in some places by dawn, and down to around 1’C – some places seeing a frost, especially more sheltered spots.

Tuesday sees high pressure remaining in control, as it has been for weeks, but now situated to our east, allowing a mild southerly flow – originating from north Africa (perhaps we’ll get some Saharan dust around).

Early fog patches will clear into long spells of sunshine. A little high cloud in the afternoon but otherwise pleasant for mid-February, 12’C, maybe 13’C. High cloud and a bit of a breeze should prevent fog/frost overnight, down to around 4’C.

Wednesday morning will be mostly sunny, some high cloud. A weak weather front will cross during the afternoon bringing cloud, and probably a short spell of rain, say 30 minutes to an hour roughly late afternoon – pretty limited but more than we’ve had for weeks. Mild, 13’C, maybe even a 14’C. Some clear spells at first overnight, but clouding over with some bits of showery rain after 2am. Down to around 6’C and quite windy.

Thursday looks cloudy with bits of showery and mostly light rain in the morning – some brightness in the afternoon, particularly later. Likely very mild, 14’C and breezy. Mostly cloudy overnight, especially after midnight. Becoming windy, the odd spot of light rain possible, around 10’C.

On Friday we have a bit of a battle with high pressure trying to push north at the same time as low pressure to our north tries to push south-east.

It will be mostly cloudy, quite windy but very mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C. The odd spot of light rain possible but most likely mostly dry. Likely cloudy overnight, a bit of uncertainty on temperatures but nothing cold.

Saturday is most likely cloudy and very mild, temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 15’C – a small chance of a little rain, but uncertain.

By Sunday, the mild air probably has left, so temperatures will be back down to normal, around 8’C. Probably a mixture of sunny spells and cloud, but cloud amounts uncertain at this stage.

Most likely high pressure remains in charge for next week, though positioning uncertain at this stage, and hence whether it will be normal temperatures with overnight frost/fog possibilities – or on the mild side.

There’s a chance of some colder weather before the end of the month, say around a 30% chance – unrelated to the sudden stratospheric warming event.

Said SSW event is happening this week, it will be a major event, but how it plays out down in the troposphere where our weather is, is another question. We should know better by the end of the week, or at least by next Monday’s forecast.

Certainly it increases the chance of high pressure to our north, pushing the jetstream south (likely very wet for Spain/Portugal), and also gives a greater chance of easterly winds – cold set-ups, with possible snow.

However it takes 2-4 weeks from the SSW for effects to be felt in the troposphere, so realistically we are looking at 5th March at the earliest for any impact, probably a little later, though also the effects go on for weeks.

Best I can say at the moment is a greater chance than normal of some notably cold weather in March/April at times, with a small chance of some very cold and wintry weather in March, ie 2013/2018.

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