Monday 13th December 2021

Boring is back.

No, I’m not referring to myself, but to high pressure which will be the dominant feature of our weather this week, well, probably for the rest of the month. Mild to start this week, but cooling down gradually.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy. Should the cloud break up then mist/fog will form, but it feels unlikely for most. The odd spot of light rain/drizzle at times, more likely towards dawn. 10’C.

Tuesday sees the jetstream quite far to our north, with high pressure building from the south. Ahhh, if only it was summer.

It will be cloudy, a little light rain/drizzle at times, more likely in the morning. A few sunny breaks possible in the afternoon. Mild, 13’C. Staying cloudy overnight, the odd spot of light rain possible, 10’C.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy and dull. The odd spot of light rain possible at times, perhaps a few sunny breaks in the afternoon. 12’C. Cloudy overnight, a little drizzle possible, some mist also, 9’C.

Thursday will again be mostly cloudy. A little drizzle possible, perhaps a bit of afternoon sunshine in places. 10’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, mist/fog forming in places, 6’C.

By Friday, high pressure is centred over the UK.

It will be cloudy again and starting to feel cooler at around 7’C. If fog formed overnight, then it will likely be slow to clear and temperatures would be lower than 7’C. Cloudy overnight, around 6’C.

Saturday is, and I’m sure you are bored of me now, likely cloudy. I cannot rule out less cloud by this stage, but most likely it will be cloudy all day. 8’C in an easterly breeze. Cloudy overnight, mist/fog possible, around 6’C.

Sunday looks cloudy and chilly – temperatures around 6’C. Likely cloudy overnight, down to around 4’C.

High pressure likely remains in control for Christmas week. Cool or cold is most likely, uncertainty on cloud amounts, which will depend on the exact position of our high pressure block – if cloud does clear then overnight frost and/or fog will become likely.

So, most likely, Christmas Day will be dry and cool or cold. Frost/fog possible – depending on cloud amounts.

There is a small chance, say 15-20% chance, that our high pressure may migrate a bit further north next week, allowing colder weather with a chance of wintry showers to migrate from the east. Which makes it around a 5-10% chance of a White Christmas.

But also there is a small chance that it may sink south and allow something mildish by Christmas Day.

Even if colder weather doesn’t arrive from the east by Christmas, then this will remain possible after Christmas and into the New Year – I rate a notable easterly or northerly flow with sleet/snow showers at around a 40% chance, at some point during this period.

The weather might be boring this week, but could be more interesting for Christmas. As ever, we shall see.

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