A dry and sunny start to the week – it will become warmer but the shower/rain risk increases towards the end of the week.

Thanks to Tom for the photograph of distant thundery showers from Sunday – I had one in Harrow so I was happy!

I hope that you are settling into the new website if you are using it – it does allow me to use more images, like this chart showing high pressure over UK as we start the week – with low pressure to our south centred just off Portugal:

Tonight will be a chilly night, down to around 1’C – a touch of frost possible, more likely in rural areas.

Tuesday starts with some cloud around, but this will clear east as the morning goes on to leave good spells of sunshine during the afternoon. Lighter breeze and temperatures recovering to 13’C, perhaps 14’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 2’C – a chance of a frost in the most rural spots.

Wednesday sees long spells of sunshine. A bit of high cloud in the afternoon, otherwise glorious sunshine. Becoming quite warm once more, 16’C, maybe 17’C. Mostly clear overnight, chilly, down to around 3’C.

By Thursday, high pressure will be drifting north of the UK, allowing low pressure to the south to edge a bit closer. Long spells of sunshine once more, though increasingly hazy during the afternoon, with a small chance of a shower late in the day. Warm, 20’C or just below. Quite a bit of cloud overnight, some clear spells, a small chance of a spot of rain too, around 9’C.

For Friday you can see high pressure to the north of the UK, low pressure to the south/south-west.

It’s a bit of a close call at the moment as to the weather for Friday, and will depend on how close the low pressure system gets to the south of the UK.

The more likely outcome is that a band of rain will develop and spread north – will it reach us? More likely than not at this stage. When and for how long are still very uncertain – it could even arrive Thursday night, it might not arrive until Friday night. There would likely be some heavy rain mixed in too, but before it arrives, depending on timing, there could be some warm, bright weather too.

Details sketchy for Saturday. Likely fairly cloudy, perhaps still some showery rain around. Some bright spells also possible. Around 13’C give or take a couple.

More in the way of sunny spells for Sunday, probably nothing amazing but fine enough. Around 16’C.

This kind of pattern looks to repeat itself for the week after. High pressure over the north of the UK or to the north of the UK, allowing for often warmish/warm sunshine. Low pressure to the south – occasionally bringing rain or showers to us in the south of the UK – Monday looking a reasonably good candidate at this stage, though no certainty this far out.

I stress that it should be warmish and sunny more days than not.