Monday 12th September 2022

Warm to start the week but much cooler by the end of the week – with some chilly nights too.

An earlier forecast than normal, so I’m using the morning’s models so I won’t be quite as up to date as normal, but hopefully there won’t be any notable difference. Too much Sunday Funday once more.

Thanks to Jade for the photograph.

Fairly cloudy tonight, the odd bit of rain here and there as a weak weather front slips south, and a fairly warm night, down to around 17’C.

Tuesday sees the remnants of Hurricane Danielle to the west of Spain/Portugal, pushing up this warmer air.

It will also push the overnight weather front back north, mostly cloud in the morning with some brightness, though as the afternoon goes on showery bits of rain become more possible, and by the evening (perhaps by late afternoon) there should be some heavy showery rain around, a small chance of a rumble of thunder. A warm feel, around 20’C. Showery rain continuing overnight and only very slowly sinking back south and fading, around 14’C.

There is some uncertainty on the behaviour of this developing rain band so don’t be too shocked if maybe it doesn’t get this far north, or it arrives earlier, or it is heavier than described – the above is the more likely outcome.

Wednesday starts cloudy, there may still be some bits of rain still to clear but it will. Becoming sunny by around lunchtime, give or take, with increasing amounts of sunshine as the afternoon goes on. 21’C, warm but feeling fresher. Quite a lot of cloud overnight, some clear spells, down to around 12’C – an outside chance of a light shower.

By Thursday, we start to see a northerly flow, due to high pressure to our west – which is arguably at least partly caused by the position of ex-Hurricane Earl over the western Atlantic Ocean.

Quite a lot of cloud around though some limited sunny spells at times. An outside chance of a light shower in a northerly breeze. Reaching around 19’C, maybe squeezing a 20’C. Variable cloud overnight, though tending to be more clear spells later in the night, down to around 9’C.

Friday sees more in the way of sunshine. Still quite a bit of fair weather cloud around and an outside chance of a light shower. Temperatures around 17’C – cooler than it has been for some months, and the northerly wind making it feel cooler than that. Clear skies and a chilly night – down to around 6’C. Brrr.

Saturday sees high pressure remain in charge. A mixture of sunny spells and areas of cloud – it should be dry. 16’C, maybe 17’C – still a breeze though less so than on Friday. Some clear spells but also some cloudy spells overnight – down to around 8’C.

Sunday looks a cloudier day at this stage, though not especially high confidence. Some sunny spells at times, around a 25% chance of a light/moderate shower. 16’C, maybe 17’C and still a northerly breeze.

Most likely very similar for Monday, some cloud, some sunshine with a fairly small chance of a light/moderate shower, and around 17’C.

The more likely outcome for the rest of next week sees high pressure drift east, so cutting off the cool northerly flow and temperatures should increase back to warm, with some sunny spells.

The week after tentatively looks more changeable with some rain/showers around – so whether the prior weekend hangs onto the warm/sunny weather, or is when things change back to more changeable, is borderline.

Right…back to bed. Have a good week.

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