Monday 12th July 2021

Summer’s coming home.

Really. It is. After the heartbreak of last night (at least for those reading who support England), hopefully the promise of high pressure building from the west during this week will offer some hope.

I have been expecting a switch to high pressure over or close to the UK to occur in the first part of July for some time now, it is a few days later than I previously expected, but we should this week switch to summer-like conditions for a few weeks – not perfect, not without showers at times, not glorious sunshine every day – but a big improvement from recent weeks.

And yes, I’m expecting to be too tired to do a forecast this evening, hence doing one now with the morning’s weather models instead of usual evening ones!

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

We are not quite done with the unsettled weather yet – this afternoon will see heavy showers break out widely, hail, thunder and some torrential downpours all possible, and this will carry on through the evening. I’d be surprised if you missed them all, but feasible that you could stay dry and avoid them, highly unlikely though. Kind of warm and humid, around 20’C or a tad over. Showers gradually fading later this evening, variable cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

By Tuesday we have our low pressure trough to our east, with high pressure starting to nudge in from The Azores.

Still quite a lot of cloud around, but there will be some sunny breaks – especially later in the afternoon. Still some showers developing, they could be heavy but some places will stay dry. Warmer, 22’C is likely. Clear spells overnight, though more cloud by dawn, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday looks like seeing quite a lot of cloud for a good portion of the day, but still some brightness at times and only a small chance of a light shower. Likely sunnier by late afternoon. Very warm, 23’C and breezy too. Clear spells overnight, down to around 14’C.

Thursday starts sunny but a lot of cloud will bubble up, and for a good portion of the day it will be mostly cloudy – only a small chance of a light shower. Again from around mid/late afternoon sunshine amounts will increase. Very warm and breezy, 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

By Friday high pressure is more dominant over the UK, and we lose the annoying northerly breeze of the previous days bringing the cloud.

And this means glorious sunshine all day. Yep. Maybe a little cloud at times, but the nicest day for some time – and reaching around 25’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Saturday also sees long spells of sunshine. Maybe a little cloud at times, but overwhelmingly sunny and very warm, around 25’C, maybe a little more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Sunday again sees long spells of sunshine and very little cloud, if any. Temperatures nudging up to the hot category, around 28’C. Clear skies overnight and a warmer night too, down to around 17’C.

Next week will see high pressure remain in control, though the orientation is uncertain at this stage and this means whether it is glorious sunshine or there are some cloudy spells is uncertain, and also temperatures are uncertain – likely either warm or hot. Not expecting anything heatwave-like.

Chances of heavy showers/thunderstorms increases for later next week but that is very vague at this stage.

Broadly I do expect this high-pressure dominated scenario to last until at least early August, perhaps mid-August at a push. But as I mentioned in the introduction, it won’t always be glorious sunshine – there will be some cloud at times, there will be the odd weather front from the north-west bringing some rain and fresher conditions occasionally, and also the odd homegrown thundery downpour, more likely on hot days.

The chance of heatwave conditions is lower than recent summers, but is possible. Mostly I expect it to be very warm or hot during the next few weeks.

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