Monday 12th February 2024

Staying mild with some rain at times – but not as much as we’ve seen. I read earlier that the CET (Central England Temperature) is 4.1’C above average so far for February, which is quite astonishing.

All the background signals pointed to a colder and drier February than normal – clearly that is not the case. And that isn’t going to change, at least not in the next week or so.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Tonight sees variable amounts of cloud, a small chance of a shower and a chilly night – down to 3’C.

The general picture for Tuesday sees high pressure over Spain/Portugal ensuring the mild flow continues, with low pressure close by to the UK.

It starts bright, but it will cloud over with showery rain during the afternoon – some heavy bursts possible. Around 10’C and breezy. Showery rain for the first part of the evening, then generally cloudy – again some more showers around from the early hours onwards. Breezy and mild, 11’C.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with rain at times, some heavy bursts possible especially mid-morning to early-afternoon, though also there will be dry spells. Mild, if not very mild, 13’C or so and breezy. Staying mild and cloudy overnight, with some showery rain at times – which could occasionally be heavy or briefly very heavy. 12’C.

Thursday should see some hazy sunshine at times, but we’ll remain in the very mild and fairly moist flow – so there will also be some showery rain occasionally, more likely in the afternoon. 14’C, maybe 15’C, and still breezy. A band of showery rain, occasionally heavy, crossing in the evening, perhaps taking until after midnight to clear – clear spells follow. Down to around 9’C.

Friday sees high pressure nudge into the UK from the south-west.

A fair amount of fair-weather cloud at first, one or two scattered showers through the middle part of the day too. But also some sunshine, especially later – and temperatures around 13’C.

Saturday starts bright, but it will gradually cloud over from the west – rain arriving maybe later in the day, maybe evening/overnight – timing TBC. Still very mild, around 13’C or so and the wind increasing once more. Rain likely overnight. Still mild, of course.

Sunday is a bit more uncertain – the trend will be for rain but timing uncertain. Quite possibly staying cloudy after it does – and definitely staying mild/very mild.

Dry and mild/very mild looks the more likely outcome to start next week.

After that I’m wary of forecasting further ahead – firstly my expectations of a colder and drier than normal February, which I canned last week, clearly haven’t come to pass.

The sudden stratospheric warming event may well happen, but whether it will impact our weather remains to be seen – it would have to be something impressive to overcome the Spanish high which is dominating our weather at the moment, likely fed by the exceptional sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

If the SSW happens, then less mild weather and more rain would be more likely going into March, with it taking around 2-4 weeks for impacts to be felt from an SSW event, and perhaps some colder weather at times – though overcoming the vast mildness over Europe would be quite something.

If it doesn’t happen, there are no strong signals for our weather in March, as it stands. Except for the Spanish high pressure.

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