Monday 12th December 2022

Another cold week ahead.

Thanks to Marion for the photograph. Quite a lot of excellent photographs sent in this week!

Tonight starts mostly cloud, though clear spells will develop for a time, albeit with more high/mid-level cloud later in the night. Roughly down to around -3’C, give or take. Ice forming in places, especially untreated surfaces – go careful!

For Tuesday, we remain entrenched in the cold air, with low pressure systems travelling over France with the more southerly tracking jetstream.

It will be cloudy all day, under influence of low pressure to our south, but it will stay dry – some hazy sunshine at times, depending on how thick the cloud is. Cold, 1’C. This layer of high/medium level cloud should stop temperatures dropping too far, -2’C widely, perhaps lower in some spots.

Broadly similar for Wednesday, the area of high/mid level cloud will allow for hazy sunshine quite often. A bit more of a breeze and still definitely cold, 1’C, maybe 2’C. Some uncertainty overnight, the cloud cover may clear to our south which could lead temperatures as low as -8’C, but likewise it may remain cloudy, with temperatures closer to -2’C – or somewhere in between.

Most likely for Thursday we are back to long spells of sunshine, but still cold (a small chance that we keep this layer of high/mid-level cloud for longer). Reaching around 1’C eventually. Clear skies overnight and another harsh frost, more likely in the range of -4’C to -6’C, but possible a bit either way. Possible that fog forms overnight, though not an especially high chance.

Friday broadly looks sunny, depending on whether any fog formed overnight and how long that takes to clear. Reaching around 2’C, maybe 3’C with a very slight mixing out of the cold. Probably a bit more cloud around overnight but another frost likely. Minimum temperatures more likely in the range of -2’C to -4’C, though it could be a little either side – an outside chance of a wintry shower.

Not especially high confidence for Saturday but suggestions of something slightly less cold with the flow turning somewhat more south-westerly. Uncertain on details, but some form of mixture of cloudy spells and sunny spells more likely, with temperatures closer to 5’C. A frost probable overnight with temperatures down to around -2’C.

Sunday is a little uncertain, but it does look more likely that low pressure will be pushing up from the south-west, bringing wind and rain with it – and milder air, though how mild is also uncertain – anywhere from 4’C to 12’C. There is a chance that the rain could be preceded by snow for an hour or two, so worth keeping an eye on things if you have plans.

Next week would then more likely start wet but mild.

Sunday’s change to milder weather isn’t completely a done deal yet, but is roughly an 80% chance – there remains a very small chance that the cold air could hang on.

And even assuming the change to mild, it could very easily change back to cold once more – the hemispheric pattern will remain conducive to further cold weather across the UK, and we could easily see further northerly plunges next week, or perhaps after Christmas maybe an easterly.

My gut instinct is that there will be another spell of cold weather before December is out, a shorter spell, within a general mix of other weather types too.

Next forecast should be Thursday, unless I decide on going to yet another work Christmas party. But I think I’m done with them!

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