Monday 12th April 2021

Mostly dry this week (and probably next) but staying on the chilly side.

So this morning was a perfect example of me having taken my eye off the models – at least in the short-term as all I was looking at was the coming weekend and time after that, as I seek signs of warmth!

And then I woke up in the morning, saw some snow photographs on Twitter and was like…urgh. All winter during the cold spells that we had, I said that snowy surprises could turn up at short notice during the cold spells…yet I forgot my own advice during this cold spell.

Of course, this is a free service for you – I have lots of other things to do. I still just about enjoy writing my forecasts enough to keep doing them, and the little bit of community on the Facebook page is nice – though there is no way that I would start up something like this now from scratch. I’m kind of stuck doing it until something better replaces me…which may be decades away!

So please do bear in mind that this is a free service, I cannot always be on top of everything – this kind of mistake will happen again, perhaps more often in the future, especially if forecasting fatigue grows. I know most of you appreciate it. I know most of the time they are good. I don’t need any reassurance!

Thanks to Caroline for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells, some cloud, a frost for most. Down to around -2’C – a small chance of some mist/fog.

Tuesday sees high pressure over the UK.

The morning will see good spells of sunshine. Quite a lot of cloud bubbling up from around midday – a 30% chance of a shower or two in the afternoon, with limited sunshine. 11’C, maybe 12’C. Clear spells overnight, some cloud, a small chance of mist/fog in places and some places seeing a frost – down to around 1’C, or a tad below.

Wednesday morning sees a mixture of cloud and sunny spells. More cloud than sun in the afternoon, a small chance of a shower, say 15% chance. 11’C, maybe a tad more. Clear spells overnight, a frost likely for most as we import slightly colder air again, down to around -1’C.

Thursday sees sunny spells in the morning – again quite a lot of cloud for the afternoon with limited sunshine. A small chance of an afternoon shower and feeling colder in a light easterly breeze – 10’C. Clear skies overnight with a frost probable, down to around 0’C.

Friday starts sunny again. Lots of cloud bubbling up from around midday onwards with limited sunshine. 11’C. Clear skies overnight – down to around 0’C with a frost in places.

Subtle changes for Saturday – we cut off the cooler easterly flow and less cloud should bubble up than during the week. So more sunshine, temperatures still on the low side, but maybe up towards 13’C at a push, though closer to 11’C still possible. Chilly overnight – frost possible.

Sunday should stay dry and settled, with high pressure a bit less influential. Details a tad more uncertain by this point, but more likely sunny than recent days, and temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 16’C.

Next week broadly looks settled with high pressure close by. I wouldn’t be surprised if a weather front did push in from the north-west at some point during the week, with some rain – but most day I’d expect to be dry, with some sunshine. Temperatures uncertain, but more likely in the quite warm category. Something colder – or properly warm possible, but I’d say the range of 14’C to 18’C would be more likely.

And yes, I will be in a pub garden tomorrow evening.

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