Monday 10th October 2022

A mixed start to the week but becoming increasingly unsettled as the jetstream sinks south and starts to head across the UK.

It is a tricky forecast with some uncertainty on where small low pressure systems track later in the week, so apologies for the uncertainty.

Thanks to Fay for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, a chilly night – widely down to around 5’C, with some sheltered spots going a little lower and perhaps a touch of ground frost.

The westerly flow continues for Tuesday though high pressure keeps things settled down here.

A sunny morning, some cloud in the afternoon but plenty of sunny spells. Reaching around 15’C. Cloud tending to thicken overnight, though still some clear spells at times, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy but bright, with some hazy sunshine. More in the way of sunshine roughly through lunchtime hours, before cloud gradually thickens once more from the west as the afternoon goes on. Reaching around 16’C. Cloudy in the evening as a weather front pushes through – bringing some showery rain in places, but some places staying dry. Around 11’C.

Thursday is uncertain. A small low pressure system looks like it will pass to our south – but it is uncertain enough that rain could be this far north – say around a 30% chance of a spell of rain at some point. Otherwise quite cloudy with some hazy sunshine at times – and around 15’C.

Friday probably sees sunny spells with fair-weather cloud and one or two well-scattered showers. Around 17’C. I say probably, as again there is a chance of another small low over northern France – and the track isn’t certain yet.

Low pressure very much in charge by Saturday.

The more likely outcome sees sunny spells and some showers, possibly on the heavy side. A small chance instead of a spell of rain – but too early to sure how exactly the low pressure develops. Temperatures somewhere between 15’C and 18’C – again depending on exact positioning of the low pressure system, we could tap into some relative warmth from the south. Breezy. A chance of showers overnight.

Sunday again broadly similar, sunny spells, a few scattered shower around and quite windy. Around 16’C, maybe 17’C.

Monday probably sees much warmer air spread up from the south, with an associated low pressure system. Details uncertain – heavy rain or heavy showers possible – likewise temperatures between 18’C and 20’C also possible – though that will depend on getting a bit of sunshine.

Likely remaining unusually warm next week – though spells of heavy rain/heavy showers will be probable. Temperatures most likely in the range of 16’C and 20’C, depending on whether it is raining – an outside chance of say 22’C if the sun comes out for a spell of time. Overnight mild.

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