Staying changeable with further showers – but some pleasant warm sunshine mixed in.
Thanks to Sara for the photograph.
The general set-up sees the low pressure trough still in charge over north-west Europe, with individual low pressure systems spinning up around it – with the next just to our west.
Sunny spells to start today but cloud amounts will gradually increase, and the afternoon will be fairly cloudy – a little brightness, perhaps a shower or two. Warm though becoming quite windy, 23’C. Soms showery rain possible in the evening – a particularly heavy pulse looks like being to our north-west, but is a close call so don’t be too surprised if there is a very wet evening, but more likely a bit of rain instead. Then overnight that rain will push east, perhaps heavy. Around 15’C.
Tuesday starts cloudy with outbreaks of rain – the rain will fade, haphazardly, though the cloud will remain for a while. Eventually during the afternoon the cloud will be replaced by sunny spells, and one or two scattered heavy showers – some uncertainty as to how long the cloud sticks around for though. Temperatures depending on how long the cloud sticks around for, but roughly in the area of 21’C, and still quite windy. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.
Wednesday starts with sunny spells, but cloud will quickly bubble up with showers breaking out – probably heavy, perhaps a rumble of thunder. You might stay dry in your area, but more likely you get at least a couple of heavy showers. Around 21’C – not amazing for July. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.
Thursday starts with sunny spells. Quite a lot of cloud bubbles up again, and more high-level cloud too – some showers but fewer than Wednesday and generally lighter. A tad warmer too, 22’C, maybe 23’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.
By Friday we see the next area of low pressure to the west, though stalling a tad.
Generally quite a lot of cloud around, but some bright spells at times allowing hazy sunny spells, perhaps the odd lightish shower and reaching around 23’C. Showery rain probably crossing overnight though details a bit uncertain.
Saturday sees low pressure sat over the northern half of the UK, and most likely we have a wet day with spells of heavy/very heavy rain, perhaps even some thunder. Temperatures on the warm side, quite humid too, between 21’C and 24’C – despite the likely downpours.
That said, this isn’t quite a done deal yet – the position and development of the low pressure isn’t certain, so whilst a wet/very wet day is around a 70% chance, a day of sunshine and heavy showers is possible instead.
Sunday likely fairer with some sunny spells, but still some showers also.
Next week likely starts showery.
Is summer over? Not in my view, but there is no easy return to high-pressure dominated conditions like that of May/June.
There are suggestions that during next week, the Azores High nudges up towards us at times, which should increase the amount of settled weather, and reduce the amount of showery days. Still no signals for August’s weather, so generally mixed will have to be the assumption for now.
I did actually read something the other day that maybe the stratosphere has led to this unexpected unsettled spell in north-west Europe…cannot say that I understood much of what I read! But it would be good to understand why July hasn’t gone to expectations, and I wasn’t the only one thinking it would likely be a hot July. Oh well, weather will do what it does, and decades ago we would marvel at a forecast of 5 days out. Next forecast should be on Thursday.