Monday 10th August 2020

Very hot with an increasing chance of thunderstorms.

Thanks to Liz for the photograph. Wouldn’t mind seeing a rainbow or three this week…as long as I get a thunderstorm. Though I know not everyone shares my joy of storms.

There will be uncertainty in this forecast. Thunderstorms are very difficult to predict in advance – there are several opportunities this week, some small chances, some good chances. You may get several – you might get none. Several is more likely.

Also, to save repeating myself every day, the thunderstorms could be severe in nature – frequent lightning, largish hail, torrential rain, localised flooding, strong wind gusts – all very possible.

I’ll try my best to give you a realistic estimation of when they are more likely, but expect updates closer to the time.

This evening should be fine and dry. Overnight sees variable though generally increasing amounts of cloud, a small chance of a shower or a flash of lightning or two, very warm and humid – probably not below 20’C for most.

For Tuesday we still have high pressure to our east, sucking up hot air from the continent – with low pressure starting to develop over France/Spain.

Tuesday starts with one or two scattered showers, again only a small chance. The sun will really heat up – we should reach 33’C easily, perhaps as high as 36’C, yet there will be a bit of cloud around. For early/mid afternoon, a few scattered thunderstorms will break out – at the moment I’d suggest around a 25% chance of catching one. Another very warm and humid night overnight, minimum temperature of 22’C with some cloud around, probably dry but a small chance of a shower and/or a little lightning.

Wednesday probably starts sunny and again it will quickly become very hot. Temperatures likely to reach 32’C, but could reach 35’C. Good spells of sunshine but a much higher chance of thunderstorms – as always, not guaranteed, some places will miss out, but around a 60% chance. And very possibly in the severe category. Often cloudy overnight, very warm and humid once more – and further thunderstorms very possible.

By Thursday a fairly distinctive area of low pressure will have developed and will be roughly over the south of the UK.

Impossible to give details, but a good chance of further thunderstorms or general thundery and very heavy rain. Still should be some sunshine at times, still humid, still hot but probably less so – somewhere between 26’C and 30’C.

By Friday, things should be somewhat fresher, and we should be looking at it being very warm, around 25’C. Still quite humid, but a relief compared to previous days.

Unfortunately, other weather aspects are uncertain. Probably a mix of sunny spells and showers, thunder still possibly though less likely than recent days.

Details sketchy for the weekend. Likely still very warm, perhaps quite hot, with some showers at some point.

Next week totally uncertain – depends on what our low pressure system does. Slight favourite is for it to nudge west and this may allow warmer and more humid air to spread from the south – with heavy, thundery showers again possible. Though only a slight favourite.

I do expect the latter part of August to be cooler and more changeable, more similar to the pattern that we had in July.

Apologies for the vagueness in the forecast due to thunderstorms and I’ll try to keep you updated when possible during the week…unless I lock myself out again like this morning. Doh.

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