A hot forecast, with sunshine and some scattered thundery downpours.

Thanks to Jessica for the photograph.

So the general picture sees the high pressure that we stuck to the north-west of Ireland, controlling our weather for the last few weeks whilst barely moving, having shifting to the north-east – with low pressure close to our south-west. This pulls the wind direction to the south-east – a hot source.

Early cloud will lift to leave long spells of sunshine. A bit of fair weather cloud this afternoon, and some high cloud as the day goes on, but broadly glorious. Just a very small chance of a shower mid-afternoon, but if any develop they should be further west of Berkshire. Quite hot, 26’C should be reached. Perfect for my first visit to Reading this year! Mostly clear skies overnight, some high cloud, and a warmer night – getting down to around 14’C.

Saturday will generally be hot and fairly sunny, albeit hazy at times. Some cloud will bubble up, and there will be a few scattered thundery downpours – at the moment I rate the chance around 30% of catching one or two. More likely you stay dry, perhaps you get a shower that hasn’t developed fully yet – but then a few places across the country will catch torrential thundery downpours, with large-ish hail, gusty winds, localised flooding and/or frequent lightning all possible. 30’C should be reached, maybe a tad more, and also somewhat humid. Quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud overnight, a small chance of a shower, and warm, no lower than 17’C.

Sunday sees quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud around, though there will be sunny spells – enough to trigger some more thundery downpours in places. A higher chance, say 40-50% chance of catching one or two, some of them may be torrential with a chance of large-ish hail, gusty winds, torrential downpours localised flooding and/or frequent lightning in the most potent of them. Of course, a fair chance that you miss them all, 50-60% chance, or just get a bit of a shower. Slightly less hot, 28’C or so, maybe a tad more. Variable cloud overnight, another fairly warm night, no lower than around 16’C.

Monday starts sunny, perhaps some low cloud to clear but if there is it will clear quickly. Some cloud will bubble up and again scattered thundery downpours break out. I think the focus will be further west on Monday, but certainly still a 30% chance here, and catch a potent one and the usual risks will be there – large-ish hail, gusty winds, torrential downpours localised flooding and/or frequent lightning, though less likely than Saturday/Sunday. Hot and fairly humid, between 28’C and 30’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

For Tuesday, the shower risk recedes and we are left with hot sunshine. Some cloud bubbling up but mostly sunny, between 28’C and 30’C. A light breeze and it should be less humid. Clear skies overnight and a fresher feel, 13’C.

By Wednesday we are kind of back to an easterly, though a light breeze – high pressure not the strongest – low pressure to our south.

Long spells of sunshine, just a bit of cloud. Temperatures between 26’C and 28’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Very similar on Thursday, good spells of sunshine, a bit of cloud, temperatures between 26’C and 28’C.

Friday into next weekend most likely staying fairly sunny, quite hot though chances of a thundery downpour increasing again.

Most likely it stays very warm/quite hot for the foreseeable – though chances of thundery downpours on some days. You’ve seen my summer forecast anyway.

Have a good weekend!