Friday 9th December 2022

Well, it’s cold and it’s going to stay cold. But will it snow? Well…there are chances. Chances.

Thanks to Kate for the frosty photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies and a sharp frost, widely down to around -4’C, maybe -6’C in the most sheltered spots. A small chance of some mist/fog by dawn in a few spots.

Saturday sees a weak area of low pressure over the UK – the jetstream is well to the south roughly through the Mediterranean, with high pressure towards Greenland. A pretty classic cold set-up – one that doesn’t happen too often.

It will be mostly sunny all day, a little bit of cloud at times possible. If you start with mist/fog, this could take a little time to lift. Just about getting to 3’C. Freezing fog forming widely overnight, down to -4’C, a tad lower in the more sheltered spots.

Sunday starts foggy almost everywhere. This gradually lifts into low cloud for most, perhaps a bit of sunshine at times. However some places may keep freezing fog all day – if you do, temperatures unlikely to reach above 0’C, otherwise 2’C. There is a very small chance of a snow shower during the day.

Sunday evening and overnight, it looks like a little feature develops towards the south coast, and moves inland. A lot of uncertainty. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. But it should bring some snow, potentially disruptive amounts, somewhere over the south-east of England. Where? Well, I’d put Kent/Sussex as the favoured areas, we are just about in the game, maybe a 15% chance. Assuming the more likely outcome of the feature being towards Kent, then freezing fog will again form (assuming it even cleared), and temperatures will get down to around -3’C, give or take.

Monday continues cold. Likely often cloudy, perhaps foggy, especially early on. There remains a small chance of some light snow showers in the morning, depending on that Sunday night feature. Some sunny breaks possible at times, more likely in the afternoon. Temperatures somewhere between -1’C and 2’C – the former if there is either snow on the ground, or fog persists, the latter if not. Overnight sees clear spells, at least at first, some more cloud likely as the night goes on, a small chance of a snow shower. Down to roughly -2’C, though could easily be a couple either way.

By Tuesday we see low pressure trying to push up from the south – it should fail, but this isn’t 100% certain.

So most likely we are fairly cloudy, perhaps some hazy sunshine and still cold, roughly around 2’C, and there could be a notable easterly (ish) wind by then. Frosty overnight, quite how cold will depend on cloud amounts, but somewhere between -2’C and -5’C most likely.

However – there is a 10% chance that during Tuesday/Tuesday night, weather fronts from the low pressure to our south spread far enough north to bring a spell of snow.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday sees it cold with long spells of sunshine, temperatures around 2’C. Frosty overnight.

The more likely outcome for Thursday again sees it cold with long spells of sunshine, and temperatures around 2’C. However, there is again a 10% chance of weather fronts spreading up from the south to bring a spell of snow.

Friday and into next weekend very likely remain cold, with sharp overnight frosts and small chances of little features bringing snow.

Difficult to say what happens for Christmas week at the moment. Milder air with wind and rain (snow probable on the leading edges) will try to push in from the south-west once more, and may have a greater chance of some temporary victories early in that week, though I do feel that a return to cold would be more likely than not even if mild does temporarily wind. And if mild doesn’t win, then it stays cold through Christmas.

So, there you go. Proper cold weather in December – how unusual. Small chances of snow, notably this Sunday – do keep an eye on forecasts – I’ll try to update on Sunday morning, but there is this thing called the Met Office who are pretty decent also.

It’s the kind of set-up where small features can bring localised heavy snow at fairly short notice, and I may or may not have time to update you beforehand.

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