Friday 8th September 2023

A few more hot days but gradually we’ll return to normal next week.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

So the general picture is pretty much the perfect set-up for heat – high pressure over the UK and to our east, low pressure to the west, with a southerly flow. For heat-lovers, it doesn’t get much better.

Friday sees more in the way of high cloud which will make the sun hazy for spells during the day, but it will remain very pleasant and hot – around 30’C. Also more humid than it has been – thanks to that high cloud. Mostly clear skies overnight, another warm night, minimum of 18’C.

Saturday sees long spells of hot sunshine – possibly the hottest day of the spell (and the year), at around 31’C, maybe 32’C. A little bit of fair weather cloud bubbling up in the afternoon and an exceptionally small chance of a thundery downpour – if any form they should be north Midlands ish. Clear spells at first overnight, though tending to become somewhat more cloudy – a very small chance of importing a thundery downpour. Warm and humid, minimum temperatures around 20’C – yuck!

Some uncertainty for Sunday but it remains hot and humid. The more likely outcome sees a mostly sunny day, with some high/mid-level cloud at times, and temperatures reaching somewhere in the range of 30’C to 33’C – an outside chance of a little higher, and even the UK September record of 35.6’C being broken somewhere, say London to Cambridge kind of area. However, there is also some uncertainty around some areas of cloud and thundery showers developing – showers not especially likely down here, but perhaps enough cloud to limit temperatures to 28’C. Another warm night and increasingly cloudy, temperatures no lower than 18’C.

Monday sees the less hot air start to arrive. More in the way of cloud than there has been, but some sunny spells and temperatures still quite hot – somewhere in the range of 25’C to 28’C. A 30% chance of a heavy shower or two during the afternoon – quite uncertain though. Another fairly warm night, otherwise conditions uncertain.

Details uncertain for Tuesday, but broadly the more likely outcome sees a fairly weak weather front bring cloud and some patchy rain – timing uncertain, temperatures also uncertain – somewhere in the range of 20’C to 24’C, depending on timing of the rain band. A much fresher, cooler night likely.

Wednesday more likely sees sunny spells and temperatures around 20’C – still warm.

Thursday, lower confidence but sunny spells, some cloud and a chance of a shower – around 21’C or so.

By this point we will have two notable hurricanes far to our west, Lee and Martha, so higher than normal uncertainty on the patterns downstream in the UK.

Certainly plausible that we go back to very warm for next weekend though with an increased chance of heavy/very heavy showers – arguably the slightly more likely outcome, but all usual (or unusual!) September conditions are plausible too.

There are signals for an unsettled week the week after, but with two hurricanes on the go to our west…who knows.

Enjoy the heat this weekend if you can…relief isn’t far away if you cannot.

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