Friday 8th March 2024

Fairly mixed weather. Not a washout – but no early spring warmth either.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Today looks sunny, once any early mist/fog patches clear. Some high cloud at times, especially this afternoon. 10’C, maybe 11’C but the south-easterly wind will make it feel cool. Cloud thickening overnight as a weather front pushes up from the south – the odd splash of rain in the latter half, down to around 5’C.

The general picture for Saturday sees low pressure heading into France/Spain, and nudging into southern UK.

Generally fairly cloudy, one or two showers dotted around but also some bright/sunny spells too. Reaching around 11’C, maybe 12’C and quite windy. A band of showery rain spreads up around early evening, perhaps by late afternoon, and then further showery rain at times overnight – more so later in the night. Down to around 7’C.

Sunday looks wet, with rain at least at times during the day, though quite likely it become persistent and on the heavy side. Some uncertainty on timings with the rain – will be quite tricky to forecast specific details until 12 hours before on this one. Breezy and around 9’C. Further showery rain possible overnight – but uncertain. Generally cloudy – a small chance of mist/fog forming. Down to around 4’C.

Monday looks cloudy, perhaps some light rain/drizzle at times. Some sunny spells possible – if the sun comes out in the afternoon, a shower could develop too. Around 9’C, give or take. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 4’C, give or take.

Tuesday also looks on the cloudy side, temperatures around 10’C – some bright/sunny spells possible but the emphases on cloud.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday/Thursday next week sees low pressure systems trying to push in from the west – bringing cloud, wind and some bits of rain, but probably nothing too much. Milder too, around 12’C.

That said, confidence isn’t especially high – models are swinging around with different solutions at fairly short timeframes.

This might be due to the fact that we’ve had another sudden stratospheric warming event – a 3rd of the winter, which according to the Met Office is a 1 in 250 year chance.

The last two SSW events didn’t lead to colder weather, like the often do. This one has more potential to bring northerly/easterly flows – it normally takes 2-4 weeks for this influence to drip down to the troposphere (our part of the atmosphere), so this may account for greater model variability in the short-term.

Hemispherically-speaking, high pressure systems are more likely further north, low pressure further south – and that will be the theme for late March and into April, though low pressure systems are already further south (ie France/Spain).

It will be an interesting few weeks, and of course, by time we get to mid-April, easterly winds don’t necessarily mean cold…as the continent is warming up notably by then.

Enjoy your weekend…time to work.

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