Friday 8th July 2022

Hot, dry and mostly sunny.

This should be a pretty easy forecast which is useful as I have a bit of a hangover.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph, and everyone else who has taken the extra effort to e-mail them. Could there be a more perfect location for a photograph for this blog?

This evening and tonight sees a bit of high cloud at times, down to around 15’C so a fairly warmish night.

For Saturday, the area of high pressure that has been fairly close to our west starts to move over the UK.

Some cloud around in the morning though with plenty of sunny spells, long spells of sunshine in the afternoon. A northerly breeze means temperatures down a notch from today but still quite hot, 26’C, maybe 27’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine, with a little bit of fair weather cloud in the afternoon. Hot, 28’C, maybe 29’C. Fairly warm overnight, down to around 15’C.

Monday will be hot and mostly sunny. There will be some bits of cloud at times, mostly in the afternoon and probably making the sun rather hazy by the end of the day. Temperatures reaching somewhere between 30’C and 32’C – though the latter more likely. Quite a bit of high cloud overnight which will help keep it on the warm side, down to around 17’C – though perhaps a bit warmer than that.

Tuesday will see a bit more in the way of high/mid level cloud, making it hazy, but it broadly remains sunny (hazy) and hot, perhaps we could class it as very hot. A bit of uncertainty on temperatures, peaking somewhere between 30’C and 35’C. A fairly warm night, down to around 18’C.

Wednesday is a bit uncertain. A very weak weather front will spread south either during the day on Wednesday or overnight. More likely is during the day – it will only bring some cloud and there will be sunny spells at times too – and still hot, this scenario easily gets us to 30’C, maybe 32’C – and a fresher feel overnight. If the weather front arrives during the night instead (less likely) then we should get to 35’C during the day with a notably uncomfortably warm night.

By Thursday, high pressure will still be over the UK, but the very weak weather front will have introduced slightly fresher air. Slightly.

It will be mostly sunny, a bit of cloud, probably some high cloud making things generally hazy and only quite hot, say 26’C to 28’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Friday remains hot and sunny. Some high cloud possible so it could be hazy sunshine rather than outright sunshine – it’s too far away to be sure. Most likely somewhere in the range of 26’C to 29’C – but perhaps lower…or higher.

By Saturday, uncertainty is increasing a bit, but by some way the most likely outcome is that we stay hot and mostly sunny, with temperatures somewhere between 27’C and 32’C.

There is a fair chance of low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal creating a plume of much hotter air, that by Saturday may reach the UK – so a small chance instead of temperatures around 35’C, or so. There is, instead, a very small chance of some showery rain, but no higher than a 5% chance.

Sunday very likely remains hot and mostly sunny. There is a very small chance of some showers, say 10% chance at most, but by far the more likely outcome is hot and sunny. How hot? Well, the chances of tapping into this much hotter air increase by Sunday, though still not the more likely outcome – say a 25% chance of temperatures between 33’C and 37’C. More likely we’ll be in the range of 28’C to 32’C.

The more likely outcome for the week after sees something a bit more changeable, some cloud, some sun, temperatures closer to normal (so very warm/quite hot), perhaps even a little bit of showery rain – suggestions are that the jet stream fires up a bit – though stays to our north.

There is, however, a very small chance that we stay very hot, at least for the beginning of the week, though only if we reached the less likely very hot outcome during the weekend. If so, then the UK temperature record would have a small chance of being broken. 40’C is not out of the question if everything aligned – though I stress is a very, very small chance.

Almost everything is perfectly aligned, from sea surface temperatures here and the Mediterranean, to ground temperatures here, France and Spain, to soil dryness – there hasn’t been a better background for the possibility of record temperatures here since 2003, in my opinion. Will the actual weather patterns provide? Who knows. There is a chance though.

The more likely outcome for the end of July is for more hot and sunny weather, and the beginning of August too.

Only weak signals for August otherwise – something mixed is more likely at this stage, but with very low confidence.

Right, time to go enjoy my monkfish curry from Clay’s. Gosh their food is good.

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