Friday 7th July 2023

Low pressure is in charge of our weather, and will be for the next 10 or so days – but whilst it stalls to our west, we get a brief reminder of proper summer. Plenty of showers/rain to come.

Summer isn’t over but it is definitely broken – I didn’t expect July to be low pressure dominated, nor did any other long-range forecast or any weather model that I saw. But…events happen and now our weather pattern is a bit stuck, as it seems to be across much of the northern hemisphere – patterns locked in.

That said – low pressure dominated yet glorious today, and still warm/very warm sunshine at times on other days – so it isn’t quite as bad as weather charts might suggest.

No local photograph this week – Facebook, like summer, remains broken. If you want to send me them, then comment on Facebook posts or e-mail them please. Instead you have one of mine, from Hackney Wick.

So the general picture sees two low pressure systems close to our west, dancing around each other – drawing up hot air, for now.

Today will be glorious, with sunshine all day and little cloud. Hot, reaching 28’C, maybe 29’C in southerly breeze. Clear skies overnight but a markedly warm night, no lower than 19’C.

Saturday starts bright and warm, humid too. A band of heavy showers will cross during the morning, thunder very possible. In the afternoon, there should be some sunshine, but scattered heavy, perhaps thundery downpours will break out – but much more hit and miss. Don’t be surprised if your area stays dry all afternoon – don’t be surprised if there is a lot of rain either, or anything in between. These thundery breakdowns are always a nightmare to forecast, though I lean towards the idea of the afternoon being mostly dry or just a shower, being the more likely outcome. Temperatures very much dependent on sunshine amounts, but assuming at least some sunshine then 27’C, give or take. A stray shower possible in the evening/overnight but mostly dry with high cloud – temperatures down to around 16’C.

Sunday isn’t the easiest day to forecast – there will be thundery rain to our east and thundery showers to our west, but we should be stuck in between. Which means quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud due to the rain to our east, but this should allow warm, hazy sunshine at times, particularly in the afternoon.

However, it remains possible that the thundery rain to our east, is actually further west and we get some rain – likewise it could be further east, and we are in the sunshine and heavy, thundery showers zone. Should either of those scenarios occur, then again more likely drier and sunnier later in the day, in general. Reaching around 23’C – give or take! Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Not much easier to forecast for Monday either, but generally it looks fairly cloudy with some hazy sunshine at times – showers possible, though at the moment I think they’ll be focused further north-west – I say that with little confidence though. Warm, around 22’C. Rain probable overnight…though timing highly uncertain.

By Tuesday, low pressure has decided to move east at last and is sat pretty much over the UK.

Assuming it rained overnight, then Tuesday will be a day of sunshine and heavy, perhaps thundery showers. Temperatures around 22’C, but very give or take – I wouldn’t rule out 25’C. However, if rain did not arrive on Monday night, then Tuesday is likely wet instead.

Wednesday I actually have more confidence on than the previous 4 days, and it should broadly be a case of some sunny spells, plenty of cloud and a few scattered showers, possibly heavy. Around 22’C.

Thursday currently looks like the next low pressure system will be heading our way – well it is all part of the same low pressure trough that has been sat over north-west Europe for the last week or so, just circulating around itself.

So, Thursday, Friday, probably Saturday, maybe Sunday we’ll see further heavy showers – I think especially so on Friday, perhaps even some general wind and rain. Not especially seasonable, but I wouldn’t write-off next weekend yet – there could be at least some warm sunshine.

A lot of uncertainty on details this time, and not exactly the cheeriest forecast for those hoping for a return to June’s weather – it isn’t happening.

There are suggestions of high pressure trying to build from the south-west the week after, but fairly weak signals at the moment. No particular signals for August as it stands – I think wait and see if we can get out of this low pressure domination first.

Enjoy the hot sunshine whilst you can…if you can!

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