Unsettled but warm this weekend, becoming notably cooler next week. Summer is over…at least for now.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

It’s an interesting set-up right now, high pressure to our west, high pressure also over Scandinavia and reaching across Scotland. Low pressure slipped down from the north earlier this week and is sat to the west of France, being fed by the hot air over Europe – bringing downpours to southern UK, France and northern Spain/Portugal.

We start Friday with pulses of heavy, perhaps torrential rain spreading roughly east to west across the south of the UK – thunder possible (and I was woken up at 5am with such). Some uncertainty on exact positioning, it will be a relatively thin band – though more likely later in the morning it positions itself to our south so we’ll become mostly dry for a time through lunchtime, perhaps even a little sunshine. During the afternoon it likely pushes north again, so by mid/late afternoon and into the evening, more heavy showery rain likely, perhaps very heavy and thundery. A warm and humid day, reaching around 20’C – though if you get a bit of sunshine at lunchtime, a big if, then 25’C could quickly happen. Skies clearing somewhat overnight as cloud pushes north, down to around 12’C – a small chance of fog patches.

Saturday looks bright though with high/mid-level cloud for much of the day. The odd stray shower possible though most places dry until later in the day, when heavy and possibly torrential and thundery showers move up from France late afternoon onwards. Some uncertainty on timing, say any time from around 5pm though perhaps not arriving until say 11pm, also uncertain as to whether they will be in the form of showers or general rain. Remaining warm and humid, around 21’C or so. Further heavy showers, or general rain likely overnight – thunder still possible, around 15’C.

Some uncertainty on details for Sunday, and it will depend on how the thundery showers/rain developed overnight. But broadly it will remain showery, some sunny spells possible and around 20’C.

By Monday, low pressure will be moving away to our east. The morning likely still on the cloudy side, perhaps some overhang of light rain and drizzle – though uncertain. It should brighten up later in the day. Feeling fresher, around 18’C.

By Tuesday we start to see our weather coming more from the north-west.

Probably starting sunny, but a weak weather front will cross bringing cloud and perhaps some bits of rain – though some sunny spells remaining possible at times. Around 19’C and breezy. A cooler night likely, down to around 8’C.

Wednesday sees more of a northerly flow, quite a cool air mass for the time of year with temperatures around 15’C…yikes. Good job I’m going on holiday again soon. Anyway, sunny spells, fair weather cloud and a couple of showers is the broad theme. A chilly night likely, down to around 6’C – perhaps even a touch of ground frost in the most sheltered spots.

Thursday continues in this cool air mass, more in the way of sunshine but still some fair-weather cloud and a chance of a shower. Around 15’C once more. Down to around 5’C overnight, perhaps even lower – again a ground frost possible.

The Azores high likely tries to build across the UK from Friday onwards, how much success it has is uncertain, but you can certainly hope for a couple of drier, sunnier and somewhat warmer days.

I will try to get the autumn forecast done this weekend! Have fun.