Friday 6th October 2023

Welcome back, summer.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Friday starts with a lot of high/mid-level cloud – bright but the sun only vaguely poking through. Gradually the cloud will thin and break, to bring a reasonably sunny day, if a bit hazy at times. Warm (for the time of year), 20’C. A mixture of clear spells and cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

So the general set-up into the weekend sees high pressure over Spain/France pushing up into the UK, with a really exceptional level of warmth in the air mass – how many times have we seen this in the last 2-3 years?

Also of note, and slight effect, is a notable colder plunge into Scandinavia – to our east, but will have a slight moderating effect on our temperatures this weekend.

So Saturday sees long spells of sunshine. There will be some high cloud around, more notably in the afternoon which will make things hazy, and limit temperatures a tad below previous expectations – but still reaching around 23’C, give or take, which is very warm for the time of year. Just 8’C in Glasgow where the colder air will reach. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Sunday again sees long spells of sunshine, but there will again be plenty of high cloud around making it hazy at times – more notably in the morning. Warm again, reaching around 22’C, maybe 23’C. Quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud at times overnight, so a bit milder, 14’C.

Monday sees long spells of hazy sunshine – the cloud generally a bit thicker than the last two days, but bright with hazy sunshine will be the theme. Warm again, reaching around 22’C. The high/mid-level cloud remains overnight, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday remains in the warm air mass, still likely a covering of high/mid-level cloud so hazy sunshine, but also perhaps a tad warmer, say around 24’C. The high/mid-level cloud remains overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday looks like the goodbye summer day – uncertain on the timeline but the warmth should hang on with some hazy sunshine in the morning, a band of potentially heavy rain spreading down from the north-west later in the day/evening – maybe overnight. As I said, timeline uncertain. Reaching somewhere between 18’C and 22’C, depending on when the rain arrives.

By Thursday, the somewhat colder air mass to the north-west will more likely spread down.

It’s not certain – it isn’t even impossible that the warmth hangs on another day, but more likely we are looking at sunny spells, some cloud, a small chance of a shower and temperatures somewhere between 13’C and 16’C. A chilly night likely – down to roughly 5’C, though very give and take at this stage.

That’s about as far as I can go – likely more autumnal in terms of temperature next weekend, it should be around the 13’C to 16’C range – but whether it is wet, or sunny, is highly uncertain. It isn’t impossible that the relative warmth returns (or never left) but is only around a 10% chance.

There is a fairly strong signal for the week after to be unsettled, wet and windy – and again a signal for something drier and milder (semi-warm?) for later in the month.

Enjoy your weekend…I have lots of boxes to pack for an upcoming house move…which would be very exciting if I knew where I was moving to. Maybe I’ll just have another holiday to Spain.

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