Friday 5th May 2023

Well it’s warmer. But unsettled with rain or heavy showers.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

Friday morning will be fairly cloudy with scattered heavy showers. More in the way of sunny spells in the afternoon, but still a fair scattering of heavy showers, perhaps very heavy with thunder. Quite warm, 18’C. Clear spells at first overnight though cloud gradually thickening with outbreaks of rain arriving around dawn, or just after. No lower than 10’C.

The general set-up for Saturday sees low pressure to our west – not actually able to move across the UK because of the high pressure block over Scandinavia, but close enough to make it unsettled in a somewhat unstable and warmer flow.

So Saturday will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain – sometimes light, sometimes heavy, sometimes not raining. A mild feel at 14’C, despite the cloud and rain. A few showery bit still possible in the evening, otherwise generally cloudy overnight and no lower than around 12’C.

Sunday looks the better day of the weekend, though imperfect. Cloudy during the morning, it will break up around lunchtime into at least some sunny spells. How much sunshine is uncertain, though I’m hopeful at least reasonable sunny spells as the afternoon progresses, and as such, temperatures anywhere in the range of 17’C to 20’C, though more likely the upper side. A chance of a shower, but more likely dry overall. Clear spells at first overnight though cloud gradually thickening as the next weather front arrives, bringing rain at some point in the second half of the night. Down to around 10’C.

Bank Holiday Monday sees rain – some uncertainty on the timings here, but broadly outbreaks of rain in the morning, some heavy bursts – more likely this continues into the afternoon, but perhaps it clears a little quicker and the afternoon sees some sunny spells but also showers. Assuming the rain hangs around, then temperatures around 14’C – but closer to 18’C if the sun comes out in the afternoon. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, around 10’C.

Tuesday is kind of an in-between day, likely some sunny spells but also some showers, perhaps heavy – uncertainty at this stage as to details on showers. Temperatures somewhere in the range of 16’C to 20’C.

Suggestions by Wednesday that high pressure starts to rise towards our west, which isn’t ideal for those hoping for warmth.

Which means the more likely conditions sees a fair amount of cloud, some sunny spells, some showers – possibly heavy. Temperatures a bit lower, in the range of 13’C to 16’C most likely.

Thursday most likely fairly similar to Wednesday.

Plausible that Friday could be pleasant and warmish, but very low confidence.

Next weekend could be anything usual for the time of year, though I’d be surprised if it was very warm or notably cold.

Well, enjoy the Coronation weekend (or enjoy studiously ignoring it) – next update will be on Monday and I won’t be forecasting anything summer-like then either. Maybe in June. At least my seasonal forecast was for a fairly poor spring.

Current thinking for summer is warmer but wetter than normal – driest in June with the best chance of longer settled spells, wettest in July/August, warmer/hotter than normal June/July, around average in August, short heatwaves more likely in July, perhaps June too.

Things very much in flux though due to the developing El Niño – and, as always, the fact that long-term forecasting is HARD and things often change to disrupt previous long-term patterns. Though my spring forecast is so far doing quite well (unfortunately!).

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