Friday 5th July 2024

A new dawn has broke, has it…oh…it’s raining again. A pretty mixed week or so ahead, but you’ll notice the spells of heavy rain more.

Photograph is from me, as the only ones in my inbox are of clear blue skies!

Starting with the general picture, which sees low pressure to our north-east, with a developing secondary low crossing the south of the UK. The Azores high way out west.

Friday starts cloudy with rain. This will become patchier and generally lighter by late morning, give or take, before another pulse of heavy, perhaps very heavy rain arrives late afternoon and into the evening. Around 18’C – a breeze at times, notably so in the heavier rain come early evening. Rain turning to showers as the evening goes on, some clear spells overnight though a chance of another shower or two. Down to around 11’C.

Saturday is a day of sunshine and showers. Variable amounts of cloud, most places seeing at least a few showers and they should be heavy, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Quite windy too, especially in showers, and reaching around 17’C. July. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

More showers on Sunday, though I think also some more general mid-level cloud – so in between showers less sunshine than on Saturday. Most places getting a few, if not quite a lot of heavy showers, potentially very heavy/torrential with thunder mixed in. Still breezy, but less notable and reaching around 17’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Monday starts sunny, but cloud will thicken during the morning, to leave it more in a state of hazy sunshine – perhaps a shower but more likely it stays dry. Staying bright but mostly cloudy for the rest of the day. Around 18’C. A spell of rain spreading north overnight, around 14’C.

For Tuesday we have low pressure in charge again, but now to our south-west/west, which allows warmer air to return.

Uncertainty on details, plenty of cloud but perhaps some hazy sunshine, heavy/very heavy showers are likely to break out, perhaps thundery, and/or perhaps a spell of general heavy/very heavy rain. It will feel warmer, and more humid – around 20’C, but it could be 2-3’C either side. An outside chance of importing a proper thunderstorm from France in the evening/overnight – not anything to expect right now, but worth keeping an eye on. Otherwise fairly cloudy overnight, around 15’C.

Fairly low confidence for Wednesday, but an improvement of sorts as low pressure heads north. Showers still possible, but less likely, and around 20’C or so.

Suggestions for Thursday/Friday are that low pressure is close to our south-east, over France, etc – with high pressure building to our north-west. I’d suggest that means cloud and showers are more likely than sunny spells – but a pretty close call.

Likewise you can have hope for the ridge of high pressure moving across the UK next weekend, to bring something drier, but very, very low confidence.

Further ahead, I’m even warier than normal because of what the impacts of the exceptional heat over western USA, and also the hurricane season will have on the strength and direction of the jetstream. Currently there are signs (and have been on and off for a while) that the jetstream will head north around mid-July, to allow warmer/hotter and drier conditions for the second half of July – but I remain highly sceptical right now.

Enjoy your weekend, and keep an umbrella handy! At least we had one drier than normal month.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *