Friday 5th August 2022

Looking for some more hot, sunny weather? Well, this is for you. And if you want some rain? Maybe…maybe in 10+ days time.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, a little high cloud. Temperatures down to around 11’C.

Saturday sees high pressure in charge, situated just to the south-west of the UK – and it ain’t going anywhere for a while.

Long spells of sunshine all day, a bit of high cloud at times, and a bit of fair weather cloud later in the day. Very warm, 24’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, and temperatures down to around 12’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine in the morning. A bit of cloud drifting down from the north in the afternoon, but still likely plenty of sunny spells. Quite hot, 26’C, perhaps a shade more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Similar story for Monday. Long spells of sunshine for the morning, some cloud developing for the afternoon but still a reasonable amount of sunshine. Temperatures up another notch, 27’C, maybe a tad more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Tuesday sees long spells of hot sunshine. A little bit of fair weather and high cloud at times, otherwise reaching around 28’C or a shade more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

By Wednesday, high pressure remains fully in control – stretching from the Azores, through much of Europe and into Russia.

Long spells of hot sunshine all day, and temperatures increasing further – 30’C, perhaps 31’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 16’C.

Thursday sees long spells of sunshine all day. Hot, around 31’C, give or take a couple. Clear skies overnight, down to around 17’C.

By Friday, positioning of the high pressure becomes a little more uncertain and so do temperatures. Likely long spells of sunshine all day, temperatures more likely in the range of 30’C to 34’C – but I wouldn’t rule out a few either way, and yes, that does mean high 30s is possible once more.

The more likely outcome for Saturday keeps it hot and sunny, somewhere broadly in the range of 28’C to 33’C. Though there is a chance of something less hot with an easterly wind developing and perhaps some cloud – though also there is a small chance that we are recording out hottest ever August temperature. One to watch. I wouldn’t totally rule out a shower…very, very low chance though – a lower chance than breaking the August record, which is just so summer 2022.

More uncertainty by Sunday – perhaps the slightly more likely outcome is something cloudier and very warm/quite hot, though there are many options possible, from a continuation of hot and sunny, or instead very hot conditions, or instead cooler conditions – there’s even small chances of a shower or two.

Uncertain for the next week – and for the rest of August, though tentative suggestions that the jetstream digs south at some point, which would lead to low pressure being closer to the UK than of late, and the chance of some rain/showers at times, perhaps thunderstorms.

Though also, it could lead to a plume of hot air spreading up from Spain.

So, arguably the remainder of August is more likely changeable – some cooler than normal weather possible at times, some hotter than normal weather probable at times (with the chance of breaking records), and a mixture of sunshine, cloud, showers and maybe even some old school wind and rain.

Looking further ahead, a drier than normal autumn is expected, though perhaps September may come close to average rainfall. A warmer than normal autumn is likely overall too.

I’ll try to get back to the usual Monday/Thursday cadence next week! Have a good weekend.

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