Friday 4th August 2023

A reminder that it is still summer is around the corner – I even use the “h” word, but first some more showers and rain.

Thanks to Charlotte for the photograph.

Quite a lot of cloud around today, especially in the morning. Some showers developing though the bulk of them and the heaviest will be to the east of our region. More in the way of sunshine from mid-afternoon onwards, and reaching around 20’C. Clear spells at first tonight but soon clouding over from the west, with outbreaks of rain before dawn. Eventually down to around 12’C.

Saturday sees the next low pressure system, on a notably strong jetstream.

Outbreaks of rain during the morning, sometimes heavy. This becoming somewhat more showery in nature in the afternoon, but also occasionally very heavy rain, perhaps with some thunder mixed in. Just about reaching 18’C in the warm core of the system, but it won’t feel so – winds quite strong at times, notably in the evening. Rain will slowly clear during the latter part of the evening. Skies gradually clearing overnight as the low pressure pushes east – down to around 9’C.

Sunday is a day of sunny spells and showers – some of the showers heavy. Around an 80% chance of catching a couple – so you may miss them all. Just about scraping 20’C and still breezy. Clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Monday starts with sunny spells. Quite a lot of fair weather cloud will bubble up, but it will remain bright – and probably dry, bar a small chance of a light shower. Around 21’C. An improvement! Fairly cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of rain, down to around 12’C.

Details are a bit sketchy for Tuesday – high pressure will start to build but also there is a decaying weather system in the mix. Broadly probably quite cloudy, perhaps a bit of showery rain – maybe some hazy sunshine, and temperatures somewhere in the range of 19’C to 23’C.

By Wednesday we finally see a pattern change! Low pressure stalling to the west, allowing warmer air to spread up from the south.

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts – broadly in the range of 24’C to 27’C, there should be at least some sunny spells, probably more sunshine than cloud overall. Oh, and dry. Probably clear skies overnight, around 15’C.

Thursday sees high pressure roughly over the UK – though exact position uncertain at this stage. So, likely sunny – though I wouldn’t rule out some cloud, and likely very warm our quite hot, somewhere between 24’C and 27’C being more likely, but I wouldn’t rule out something a bit more on the hot side either.

By Friday, low pressure will be edging closer so there is more uncertainty. More likely we hang onto the warmth with temperatures in the region of 25’C to 28’C – but it does depend on the position of low pressure close to our west. Hazy sunshine the more likely outcome, but also a risk of some showery rain at some point.

The slightly more likely outcome for next weekend sees the low pressure system push the warmth away, but leaving us a reasonable weekend – sunny spells, generally warm/very warm.

The slightly less likely, but still very possible outcome for next weekend is that low pressure sticks around, but also so does the heat – so quite hot/hot with sunny spells and thundery downpours developing.

Either way, it is definitely a change.

As I mentioned before, I don’t expect a return to long, hot dry spells like in June, but likewise I think this is us exiting our rut. Generally my expectation is for it to remain changeable, but more dry, settled and sometimes sunny weather in the mix then the last few weeks.

There’s no particularly strong signals for September yet – a weak signal for something warmer near the end of August, but not something I’d want to hang my hat on, especially the way the last weeks have gone.

Well, I guess I better go and book a half day to enjoy the warmth next week!

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