Friday 3rd November 2023

Remaining fairly unsettled – it was even windy here in Spain yesterday. Some sunnier, drier days in the mix too though.

Thanks to Christel for her other wonderfully gloomy photograph.

A calmer day today, some sunshine, some cloud and one or two heavy showers around, more likely mid-late afternoon, but not impossible at other times. Reaching 13’C, maybe 14’C, and breezy. Clear spells for a time tonight, though clouding over with rain arriving around dawn, or slightly before. Down to around 5’C.

So the scene for Saturday sees pretty much the whole of Europe dominated by a large low pressure trough, with the jetstream further south than normal, through France. This will shift north during the course of next week – but doesn’t change the weather for us.

Saturday morning sees rain spread north, a good few hours of rain, some heavy bursts particularly on the back edge. Heavy showers immediately follow, though with sunny spells too. Windy in the rain, breezy after, 12’C, maybe 13’C. Showers still possible into the evening, and quite a lot of cloud overnight – though some clear spells. Down to around 8’C.

Early cloud on Sunday should clear to a pleasant day with sunny spells. Just an outside chance of a shower. 11’C, maybe 12’C and breezy. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, down to around 6’C.

Monday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. The odd shower possible, say around a 30% chance of catching one, still breezy and around 12’C. Probably dry and chilly overnight, though there is a small chance of an area of showers crossing instead – more likely at the moment that this heads over France.

Assuming the overnight area of showers headed to France, Tuesday should be a sunny day, with a bit of cloud. On the cool side at 10’C, maybe 11’C.

Wednesday likely sees rain crossing.

Thursday and Friday, not especially high confidence, but more likely drier with some sunshine.

Likewise not especially high confidence for next weekend, but more mixed with some showers/rain – but not a total washout.

Winter still looks like a milder winter than normal, perhaps much milder, with December a mixture of unsettled spells and settled, and January/February currently more likely to be drier than normal.

Snow-lovers will probably need to wish for a sudden stratospheric warming event – though short cold spells will be possible.

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