Friday 3rd March 2023

Spring is here but winter is coming – there are snow chances.

Thanks to Debbie for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy and chilly. Most places escaping a frost, but there is a small chance of a few more sheltered spots getting a slight frost. Down to around 3’C.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy. A few bright spells, a small chance of a light shower but otherwise nothing happening. 7’C, maybe 8’C in a light northerly breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight – a few light/moderate showers dotted around, and chilly, down to around 3’C.

By Sunday, the northerly flow is starting to gather a little force, but also the Atlantic is starting to awaken far to our south-west.

Still plenty of cloud around but a bit more in the way of sunny spells. Some showers too, they should be light/moderate in nature. Feeling colder, 6’C tops. Some clear spells overnight, but also some cloud and still the odd shower possible. Down to around 0’C – a frost more likely than not, but will depend on cloud amounts.

Monday again looks fairly cloudy. Some bright spells at times, also some showers dotted around – more likely later in the day. A tad milder due to a low pressure system developing in the North Sea, 8’C. A band of showers developing and spreading south overnight – the back edge could be a little wintry in nature. Down to around 2’C by dawn.

Tuesday probably starts with the weather front still over the south, which could possibly be wintry in nature – will be a forecasting nightmare I suspect! One to worry about next week. Sunny spells will eventually follow, a small chance of a sleet/snow shower in the afternoon. Reaching around 5’C, but feeling notably cold. Likely clear skies overnight with a sharp frost, down to around -4’C – though very approximate.

From here, things become tricky. Low pressure systems from an awakened Atlantic will try to push in – and could be preceded by snow.

Wednesday is the very earliest this could happen – though more likely it stays to our south and we stay sunny and cold – around 5’C.

From then, details are impossible – and will depend on the track and timing of the low pressure systems.

We should get to a point by the weekend where it is much milder, but with heavy rain and maybe strong winds also. This is not certain, the cold air could win, but I’d suggest a 75% chance that mild and wet wins by the weekend.

But before that, there will be a battle between low pressure systems trying to push in from the south-west and the Arctic air pushing down from the north – where those meet, there will be heavy, possibly disruptive snow. More likely this battleground will happen in central or northern areas, but we are in the game – we could have a snow to rain event. Outside chance we could have a snow event on one day, followed by snow to rain the next day.

Said events could be on Thursday or Friday, or both – or maybe even Saturday. If you are pushing me for percentages, then a 30% chance of a temporary covering of slushy snow one day late next week, a 60% chance of snow falling at some point late next week.

Likewise it could just be rain, or maybe the cold air wins and the rain/snow stays over France.

Plenty of uncertainty as to the details, though the broad picture is interesting.

Enjoy the last of the boring weather for a while.

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