Friday 3rd February 2023

Staying mostly dry – mild at first but becoming somewhat colder from Sunday.

Thanks to Debbie for the photograph.

Some hazy brightness at first today, but mostly cloudy otherwise. Mild, 12’C. A few clear spells overnight, mostly early on, but cloudy most of the night, 7’C or so.

High pressure remains in control to our south on Saturday – it will be on the scene all week, but will vary position a bit.

It will be mostly cloudy all day – a little brightness at times, but the exception to the rule. Fairly mild, 11’C. Cloudy overnight, a weak weather front sinking south-east may bring a little light rain around midnight, give or take, clear skies will follow. Colder by dawn, when it will be down to around 2’C.

Sunday will be bright with hazy sunshine. A northerly breeze making it feel on the cold side, 7’C. A frost likely overnight, though a little uncertainty as there will be some high/mid level cloud around, but most likely we’ll get down to around -2’C. A small chance of fog by dawn.

Monday may start foggy – uncertain at this stage. Otherwise generally similar to Sunday, bright with hazy sunshine at times. Reaching around 7’C, though a little less if fog formed and lingers into the day. Frost or fog likely overnight, perhaps both, and down to around 0’C – though it could easily be lower, especially if no fog.

By Tuesday we are in between high pressure areas – one to our south-west and on over Europe to our east. Interestingly one of the main models had a Beast From The East style scenario for next week, which seemed unlikely to me (hence I never mentioned anything on Monday’s forecast, even about a “small chance” – it has now dropped it. But there will be a little bit of a continental influence.

If it was foggy overnight, then this may well take a while to clear – otherwise it looks bright with some hazy sunshine, some cloud. Temperatures between 3’C and 6’C – lower in the range if fog formed and was slow to clear. Fog and/or frost likely overnight, down to around -2’C, give or take.

Wednesday again may start foggy, and it may take a while to clear. Otherwise it should be fairly sunny, some cloud possible. Temperatures between 3’C and 6’C – lower in the range if fog formed and was slow to clear. More likely frosty overnight than not.

Thursday onwards and into next weekend, most likely remains under the influence of high pressure. Most likely it remains mostly on the chilly side, somewhere between 4’C and 7’C, most likely there is more overnight frosts, perhaps fog.

At some point there may also be a weak weather front, say Thursday or Friday, bring more in the way of cloud and maybe some light rain.

Certainly plausible that it becomes more changeable from around mid-month (which would make my longer range expectations for February completely wrong, lol), with the jetstream digging further south at times, but I am unconvinced at the moment.

Interestingly all the background signals, as I read them, point to a wet and mild February – QBO, the current recovery of the stratospheric polar vortex, La Niña and the current phase of the MJO. Yet the weather isn’t matching this.

Also of interest is that models are once again suggesting a stratospheric warming event – one happened recently but it wasn’t sufficiently strong to affect our weather patterns – could the next one in a couple of weeks affect our weather? Worth keeping an eye on, as it could well mean a cold Easter – or around then.

I’m already at the point of looking for spring…so not something I’d welcome. But also there remains suggestions that March will be warmer than normal.

Enjoy your weekend, I better do some work…well…attend some meetings anyway.

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