Friday 31st May 2024

A reasonable end to spring, and start to summer, some warm sunshine at times – cloudy other times.

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

The general set-up sees high pressure close to our west – low pressure still closer to our east so we will at least have some cloud to deal with, and some patchy rain perhaps.

Friday will indeed be on the cloudy side, a weather front skirting down the east coast will bring some patchy light/moderate rain at times today, but there should also be a little sunshine at times too. Temperatures disappointing for the time of year, at around 15’C, with a northerly breeze. Plenty of cloud overnight, though some clear spells likely. Down to around 9’C.

Saturday does have a bit of uncertainty on cloud amounts – likely more cloud than sunshine overall, but also there should be some decent sunny spells at times. Cloudy spells more likely in the morning than other times. Assuming sufficient sunshine then reaching around 19’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

By Sunday, high pressure to our west will have greater control, so more in the way of warm sunshine – decent sunny spells but likely still a fair amount of fair-weather cloud, and perhaps some high cloud in the afternoon making it hazier. But broadly a good day, and around 22’C. Cloudier and milder as a very weak weather front spreads down from the north-west overnight, 14’C.

Monday sees this weak weather front moving south, so bringing plenty of cloud – some bright/sunny spells still possible, likewise some light rain/drizzle – more so in the afternoon. Still a warmish feel at around 18’C or so. The weather front clearing overnight to leave mostly clear skies, around 11’C.

By Tuesday, we start to see the winds swing more to the north-west. We should hang onto the warmth for Tuesday with some sunny spells, and some cloud – though uncertain on details. Mostly likely temperatures still on the warm side, between 19’C and 23’C.

By Wednesday we start to see a developing low pressure move down from the north – not exactly what most would like to see in summer, but we should just about hang onto dry-ish conditions at least. Also some hotter air is coming up into Spain at the same time, but probably isn’t quite going to reach here (though guess who’s going to Spain next weekend?!).

Wednesday shouldn’t be too bad, sunny spells, fair-weather cloud, a chance of a shower and temperatures roughly between 16’C and 18’C is the more likely outcome – something cooler is plausible though.

Thursday probably on the cloudier side of the spectrum, though some sunny spells probable – more likely early/late in the day. Around 18’C but give or take, depending on cloud amounts.

By Friday and into next weekend, well, it’s complicated.

The hot air from Spain will likely be close – more likely it stays just over the channel and we stay around 18’C to 22’C, but it is within the range of possibilities that we do tap into it and reach around 25’C to 28’C.

However said hot air from Spain meeting the cooler air trying to push down from the north, will likely generate some heavy, thundery rain or thunderstorms – again more likely over the continent, but very possible for us too at some point Friday/Saturday.

In short, it is too early to be sure for next weekend, it is 7+ days away so no surprise there. It could be pleasant and dry, it could be warm or cool, it could pour down at some point, and there is a small chance of tapping into some heat. It wouldn’t surprise me if it isn’t nailed down when I next do a forecast on Monday/Tuesday.

I wish you all a good weekend, hopefully I will get time to write the summer forecast.

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